God Has a Veto

[Update 8/18:   Called it:  “The two Koreas on Saturday agreed to reschedule the inter-Korean summit slated for late August in Pyongyang to Oct. 2-4 after North Korea requested a delay because of its extensive flood damage, the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said.”]  

Would Kim Jong Il host a summit in Pyongyang if he couldn’t make a propaganda spectacle of the visit?  Yesterday, I relayed the latest reports of serious flooding North Korea that have reportedly killed hundreds and destroyed thousands of homes.  The damage apparently affected most of  North Korea’s West Coast, all the way from the Yalu River to at least the Taedong.   What I didn’t realize was that downtown Pyongyang also took a serious hit. 

With the rapid rise in water level of Daedong River due to the localized rainfall, damage is supposed to be serious in several places within Pyongyang. The rainfall which poured on the city could not be properly channeled to Daedong River, leading to the submersion of the 1st floor of the Botong River Hotel.

The hotel is a first-rate hotel, a nine-floor building situated in 1973 on the edge of the Botong River in Ansang-dong, Pyongcheon-district. It is a place usually occupied by foreign businessmen seeking out Pyongyang. The US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, who visited Pyongyang in June, was supposed to have shared drinks with Kim Kye Gwan.  [Daily NK]

If the city is a mess, that may explain why the North Koreans failed to show to  discuss  the  necessary arrangements.  Or not.  After all, this is North Korea, the ultimate enigma, the kind of place not just anyone can blog about.  Still, not even the agnostics out there could help but enjoy watching all of the machinations of the politicians wrecked by a vengeful God. 

A  more grave  question is how this will affect the food situation.  As any visitor or  avid Google-Earther can attest, the  farms and fields in the  area  around Pyongyang are clearly better tended than those in other areas, where conditions look almost semi-arid.  This “core” area probably gets first pick at the supply of seed, fertilizer, and pesticide.  It’s the only place where you’ll see what look like viable feedlots.  Second, North Korea’s infrastructure is a wreck, and the flood apparently caused considerable additional damage, according to North Korean sources quoted  by Reuters:

Tens of thousands of hectares of farmland were flooded, and 800 public buildings, more than 540 bridges and 70 sections of railway destroyed, it added.  [Reuters]

Which leads to another, more direct, impact on summit plans:

Subsequently, it is highly possible that the [South Korean]  government, which has pursued an overland visit to North Korea, will turn its position. The Kaesung-Pyongyang highway which was used at the time of Kim Man Bok’s, Chief of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), visited to North Korea was known to be swept away.

In the case of railroads, experts analyze that visiting North Korea on the Kyunghui Line (from Seoul to Shinuiju), unless the safety issue is resolved, would be difficult since the foundation of the railroads has been weakened.  [Daily NK]

What if food production in the area near Pyongyang is disproportionately affected?  Admittedly, we can’t expect reliable crop damage estimates like this one  for months, if ever.  How will this affect the regime and the population?   Normally, Pyongyang always gets the first pick of all resources, especially food.  But this time, robbing Peter to pay Paul may not be an option.   During the Great Famine, a  wrecked infrastructure  meant that the regime could not move food from one part of North Korea to another overland, and its ports are also dilapidated.   No evidence suggests that the infrastructure is in better shape now than then.  Recent reports  suggest that the food situation in  the East  is marginal, so there’s not much to be diverted from there, and diversion could throw those areas into crisis. 

Crop losses in Pyongyang alone  won’t spell disaster, however,  just one more setback in a steady series.  My guess is that North Korea will ask for and get food aid from South Korea and China, even if that aid has to land at Nampo.  Even the United States is considering giving aid.  Because North Korea actually places some value on the population living  near Pyongyang, the regime will distribute enough of that aid to keep them reasonably healthy.  There will be corruption, diversion,  and waste, of course,  and that will take some toll of bitterness and disillusion.  If much good cropland was lost, this could add to North Korea’s long-term food dependency. 

See also:  

*   North Korea is accusing the United States of “‘sitting idle’ and turning a blind eye to the protracted captivity of 19 South Korean hostages,” which is pretty ironic if you know what the North Korean government does to any Korean missionaries it catches working its turf.   

*   Ignore the openly-expressed desire of so many of its German readers that we not succeed in Iraq.  Ignore the gratuitous political chops.  This lengthy report by Der Spiegel on Iraq is absolute must-reading, a sincere attempt at objective truth-telling in a degree of depth and breadth that makes its flaws seem trivial. 

*   Talking about news often means dwelling on the mean, selfish things people do to each other, and since this is a blog about Korea, it’s nice to have the chance to tell a story this uplifting about an ordinary Korean hero’s sacrifices for the sake of others:

Peter Nguyen doesn’t just tear up when he talks about Jeon and that day on the high seas.  You can actually see rivulets streaming down his face.  “They are tears of gratitude,” he says. “If the captain had not rescued the 96 of us that day, I wouldn’t be here. The storm would’ve claimed our lives. [….]

Jeon’s bosses who had heard about the captain’s defiance ordered him yet again to drop them back into the ocean on makeshift rafts.  Reluctantly, the captain ordered his men to make some rafts. He stood on the deck watching the boat people, talking in hushed voices and huddling close to their families.

Then, in a corner, Jeon saw a young mother. She was holding a tiny infant, barely two months old. There was no way that baby was going to make it on a bamboo raft on the Pacific, Jeon thought.  He ordered his men to stop making the rafts.  [OC Register]

Read the rest here.