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Monthly Archive: October, 2007

October 29, 2007

There Is Such a Thing as ‘Good’ Engagement

If you’re reading this, you’re bearing with me despite the light blogging of late.  Thank you.  I make a habit of not talking about my work here, but suffice to say that it carries significant responsibilities that sometimes leave no time and energy for other things.  At times like these, when there is very little time left over, I owe that time to my family.  Thank you again for your understanding,  for continuing to stop by, and for your e-mails. ...

Categories Deprogramming/Six-Party Talks
October 23, 2007

Links for 23 Oct 07

* John Bolton is now actively lobbying against Agreed Framework 2.0, drawing dozens of GOP congressmen  to speeches he’s giving to influential policy groups (ht: Evan).  His efforts appear to have gained new traction with the Syria revelations, and the Administration’s inordinate secrecy from Congress about those revelations probably isn’t doing any good for congressional relations (but may be fueling suspicions).  Yes, Bolton probably suspects that his enemies in the State Department torpedoed his confirmation, and he probably holds a...

Categories Anju Links
October 21, 2007

The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il

[Updated below] We often hear reports that China has curtailed or cut aid to the North Korean regime. I’ve usually been skeptical of those reports because I believe that Kim Jong Il’s arch-patron China wants us to believe that it’s being “helpful” in disarming North Korea of its nuclear programs, but actually considers it a useful distraction for American power in the region. Now, a new report claims that China is holding up cross-border rail traffic to the North over...

Categories China & Korea/Diplomacy/Famine & Food Aid/Kim Jong Il/NK Economics
October 20, 2007

Fighting Hard Power With Soft: Sanctions, Iran, and Burma

Burma’s generals, confident that they have reestablished the rule of terror, have just relaxed their  curfews and bans on public assemblies.  It’s exceedingly depressing to write about yet another ongoing atrocity that no one has the courage or vision to really fight, and Burma is another of those atrocities.  If the Administration thinks that modest sanctions like these will end the slaughter, it’s fooling no one: The president directed the government to freeze any U.S.-controlled assets held by 11 senior...

Categories Iran/Southeast Asia/Uncategorized
October 15, 2007

Links for 15 Oct 07

*   North Korea is  building or repairing the fences around its nuclear test site in the northeast.   What  reports like these don’t mention, however, is that directly to the northeast of that test site lies  Camp 16, one of North Korea’s more horrendous concentration camps.  And  if the  Daily NK’s December 2006  report of a mass escape is true, it might be that the North Koreans are actually repairing the camp’s fences, not the test sites.  Hopefully, an intrepid...

Categories Anju Links
October 14, 2007

NYT: It Was a Reactor

Israel’s air attack on Syria last month was directed against a site that Israeli and American intelligence analysts judged was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, apparently modeled on one North Korea has used to create its stockpile of nuclear weapons fuel, according to American and foreign officials with access to the intelligence reports.  [N.Y. Times, David Sanger and Mark Mazzetti] Even among other journalists who cover this story and the White House, Sanger is well known for having good sources...

Categories Six-Party Talks
October 12, 2007

Links for 12 Oct 07

*   Irrational Exhuberance, via the AFP’s P. Parameswaran:  “A team of US experts left Tuesday for North Korea to disable the hardline communist state’s nuclear weapons arsenal in a crucial phase of a six-nation disarmament pact.”  Mr. Parameswaran is a good enough fellow, but  the first sentence of his  report is absolutely false.  Not only are U.S. experts not on their way to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, North Korea has yet to declare what, specifically, that arsenal consists...

Categories Anju Links
October 11, 2007

Summit Perceptions

So what will be the enduring  effect of the meeting between Roh Moo Hyun and Kim Jong Il?  I could speculate, but others have already done that.  Simply read the divergent brands and ask yourself:  who is better informed and grounded in reality:  a semi-random sampling of ordinary  North Koreans, or a New York Times reporter?  (Big hint:  it’s Norimitsu Oniishi, who is almost always over his head when he strays beyond culture and fluff stories).   I’ll just observe that...

Categories Appeasement/Inside NK/Korean Politics
October 9, 2007

The Last Chance

Does this sound like a country that’s made the decision to give up its nuclear arsenal? The North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper ran a lengthy editorial to mark the anniversary, imploring the poverty-stricken population of 23 million to rally around Kim, the official Korean Central News Agency said. “Never forgettable are acclamations of October, 2006, when we shouted hurrah again and again at the top of our voices in admiration of General Kim Jong Il who unfolded an eternally clear...

Categories Six-Party Talks
October 7, 2007

Who Cares About Politicizing Intelligence Now?

Washington was plunged into sleepy apathy this week as ABC News reported that the  Bush Administration  ingored, then  failed to act on intelligence about  nuclear proliferation and potential terrorism that could have endangered  millions of lives.  The report claims that the Secretary of State and the President  received credible reports that North Korea transferred nuclear technology to Syria,  but suppressed the information  to save a troubled diplomatic deal, and even  sought to tip  the Syrians off.  The latest report follows...

Categories Appeasement/Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks
October 3, 2007

Define “All”

Update:   A reader was kind enough to send a copy of the latest six-party joint statement, which you can read here.   Some of the key langugage: 2. The DPRK agreed to provide a complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs in accordance with the February 13 agreement by 31 December 2007. A deadline.  I like deadlines.  But  this adds no clarity  that nuclear “programs” means nuclear “weapons,” and nothing about inspection or verification beyond Yongbyon. 3. The...

Categories Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks