Links for 12 Oct 07

*   Irrational Exhuberance, via the AFP’s P. Parameswaran:  “A team of US experts left Tuesday for North Korea to disable the hardline communist state’s nuclear weapons arsenal in a crucial phase of a six-nation disarmament pact.”  Mr. Parameswaran is a good enough fellow, but  the first sentence of his  report is absolutely false.  Not only are U.S. experts not on their way to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, North Korea has yet to declare what, specifically, that arsenal consists of or where it is kept.  In fact, some of North Korea’s recent statements cast doubt on its agreement to give up its nuclear arsenal.  Just yesterday,  it held a parade to celebrate that arsenal.  A correction is in order.  How, you ask, do I manage to sustain my pessimism in a world where everyone else believes in fairies?  Easy.  I know the history.

*   Second Thoughts?   If you haven’t yet read Richardson’s post or the NYT story he links, it appears that the Syria story is giving some members of this administration second thoughts about Agreed Framework 2.0.  The NYT story is badly written, and does a generally poor job of laying  out the various  suspicions  and what evidence support each of them.  While the publicly available evidence is in considerable conflict and probably a small part of the picture, I’ve done several posts to lay it all out: here,  here, and here. 

*   What Then?   As I mentioned here, the South Korean election gives us good cause to keep that debate behind closed doors until December.  Then, if the evidence supports the allegation that North Korea cheated, the Administration — that is, Condi Rice herself —  needs to lay it out in painstaking detail.  And to those who will say there is nothing we can do about it anyway short of war, nonsense.  If half-measures worked this well, imagine what a true economic blitz could do to the palace economy.  Because the idea is to  destroy Kim Jong Il’s palace economy while engaging and empowering ordinary North Koreans, we should simultaneously extend a sincere and generous  offer of food aid, strictly conditioned on North Korea letting us distribute it fairly.  As I’ve explained here, North Korea may not be in a position to refuse this time.

*   Korea Without the Alliance.  A reader and friend sends what looks to be a fascinating report  from the National Bureau of Asian research.  My friend tells me that Nick Eberstadt was one of the contributors, meaning there’s got to be some fiber in there somewhere.  I haven’t had time to read it yet, but that doesn’t mean I’d deny you the pleasure. 

*   China-Refugees Update.  Yesterday I reported that Chinese police has hauled away four North Korean refugees and roughed up several South Korean diplomats at a South Korean school in Beijing.  Today, reader Sonagi sends  a link to a  Korean-language link to the Hanky(!)  with a picture of a man trying to shred a Chinese flag in front of the ChiCom Embassy in Seoul.  Nice to see China get at least some guff over  its treatment of North Koreans,  an absolute atrocity.  You have to wonder if  anyone would try to stop him if it was an American flag.  On further thought, strike that.

*   Yet another step toward taking apart al-Qaeda’s infrastructure  in Iraq.  I have made a habit of not commenting on casualty trends, because it’s apparently bad luck.  Instead, just scroll down and see the charts in the left-hand column, and this.