Hill the Hawk? Not This Year.

A friend was kind enough to pass along five transcripts of Christopher Hill’s remarks to the press during his current trip to Japan and the Koreas. There’s too much interesting information in there to graf and the remarks aren’t long, so I’m just going to upload them in full and let you read for yourself. These are State’s own transcripts; I’ve appended the text to the bottom of this post.

The key point is that North Korea is going to hand the declaration of its nuclear programs to the Chinese very soon. Since it’s a given that the North Koreans will leave a few things out, the real questions are how we’ll know what’s left out and what we’ll do about it. The moment of truth will soon be upon us, and although we’ll probably have a few solid suspicions, my vote is still for this turning into a protracted negotiation that will drag into the next administration.

Hill wants you to believe otherwise. He certainly wants to sound firm, which is significant by itself, because it tells you he’s now more afraid of rising domestic criticism than he is of the North or South Koreans. And Hill is in a better position than I am to know just how afraid he should be. Indeed, he specifically refers to the risk that Congress won’t support this deal.

Hill leaves little wriggle room on the issue of North Korea’s nuclear materials and weapons — those will have to be disclosed, too. He sounds firm on North Korea’s nuclear materials, including those that have been shipped elsewhere. Hill will also visit Yongbyon to personally observe the progress of “disablement” of the reactor there, which helps him focus attention on a place that is probably just the tip of North Korea’s metaphorical atomic iceberg. He also expects a preview of the North Korean disclosure.

On uranium, Hill insisted only that North Korea give a good explanation for what we know about its purchase of centrifuges. This week, the Washington Times reports that North Korea may have sent the centrifuges it bought from Pakistan off to Syria (for safekeeping?). The story is sourced from within the Bush Administration, suggesting either that someone is sending North Korea a strong hint, or that there’s a leaking dissenter

Overall, Hill tries to sound very firm about North Korea’s obligations for full disclosure, although he doesn’t really say what happens next. He offered no details on verification. The question is whether you believe him. You know where I stand. I’ve sat there and watched him lie to Congress, after which he went back to his office and conspired to commit felony money laundering. For Hill, this is career-discriminating diplomacy, no matter how ill-advised, immoral, or untenable the deal to which he commits us. I could be wrong, of course, and hope I am.

The remarks are also significant for what’s left out — any comments about talks with the Japanese. Hill flew through Tokyo. Didn’t he even stop to chat? Or would he prefer not to elaborate on just how much damage this misbegotten grasp at a legacy is doing to our relationship with Japan?

Remarks Upon Departure From Japan
Christopher Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Haneda Airport
Tokyo, Japan
November 29, 2007

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: As you know, the declaration, when it is given, will be given to the chair of the six parties — that is to the Chinese. We’ve had some informal discussions about it, and I look forward to doing that when I’m in Pyongyang. But the declaration will be given out in connection with the Six-Party meeting, which we are expecting to be the latter part of next week. It’s up to the Chinese. I know they’re trying to organize all the participants to be there for the sixth of December.

QUESTION: [inaudible]

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We have not seen the declaration. The declaration is to be given to the Chinese, not to the U.S., to the Chinese. We have continued over the past months — really including and especially in Shenyang in August — we’ve had discussions about what should be in the declaration. We’re continuing to do that. I look forward to doing that when we get to Pyongyang on Monday.

QUESTION: [inaudible]

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think we felt that the declaration needs to be discussed at a heads of delegation meeting. So, I’m sure it will be conveyed to the Chinese in time for the head of delegation meeting. But, it’s with the heads of delegation that the actual substance, the actual text of a first draft, needs to be discussed.

QUESTION: [inaudible]

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: My understanding [inaudible] Monday, the plan is to speak with the disabling team down in Yongbyon and meet with the Koreans in Yongbyon and get a firsthand idea of how the process is working. We’ve understood that we’ve had very good cooperation. As you know, the IAEA has representatives there too. I’d like the opportunity to meet with them and really thank them for their very hard work on this process. And I think later on Monday, I’ll begin to have some discussions in Pyongyang. I think, first, my main host will be Mr. Kim Kye Gwan.

QUESTION: Are any other officials other than Kim Kye Gwan expected?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I’m expecting to get a schedule when I actually get there. That’s certainly the DPRK way — wait for the person to get there and give them the schedule.
QUESTION: Do you expect progress on disablement?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We’ve been getting reports on a daily basis about how the disablement activity has been going, and the reports have been very positive. They’ve been positive from two points of view. One has been the considerable cooperation with the DPRK officials and technicians at Yongbyon. And the second is that we have a list of measures that were undertaken, and we are making progress in getting through that list. These include disabling activities, and severing steam valves, and this type of technical thing. And so for me, it’s a real opportunity to get there, and not only thank the people involved but to see — in my own non-technical way — to see how these technical issues are being handled.
QUESTION: Do those steam valves belong to a reactor or another facility?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Again, I’ll be in a much better position to answer your question after I’ve been there. But we have been conducting disabling activities at all three installations — that is fuel fabrication, reactor, and reprocessing facilities. So, we’ve done a little in each, and I’m looking forward to understanding better how it has been going. Okay? So, I’ve got to catch my plane. Good to see you all.

# # #

Remarks Upon Arrival in South Korea
Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Gimpo Airport
Seoul, Korea
November 29, 2007

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Hi. Nice to see you all. Nice to be back.
QUESTION: Can we get right into it?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I’m sorry?
QUESTION: Should we just get right into it?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Whatever question you got?
QUESTION: When do you think North Korea can be removed from the terrorism list?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, you know we are working on that. The process is moving forward. There have to be a number of steps, so I’d rather not predict it right now, except to say we are moving ahead on that.
QUESTION: Has North Korea begun declaring its atomic programs?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: They have begun to put together their list. I think it is pretty close to being ready. I think they are going to be giving it to the chair of the Six-Party process, that is the Chinese. And I expect the heads of delegation will talk about it when we meet. I know the Chinese are trying to organize a meeting of the six parties for the end of next week. It will depend on whether everybody can come. I am certainly available, and I know that a number of other countries are ready to come.
QUESTION: Will you be discussing the declaration list when you get one at the meeting?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I am sure we will be — absolutely. I’ll do that when I am in Pyonyang, but also I think when we get to the Six-Party meeting. I mean that will be the proper forum to have a proper discussion about their declaration list. You know the declaration is one of their key undertakings for this year. It is a very important development for us, a very important milestone as we move forward. But I want to emphasize that none of these milestones are important unless we get to the end, which is full denuclearization. And I want to begin to have some discussions about how we can use the calendar year “Ëœ08 productively to get this job finished.
QUESTION: When you visit the Yongbyon Complex will you be seeing some of the equipment used for the — involved with the UEP or what kind of facilities will you be —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, Yongbyon is a facility for plutonium production, so I’ll be meeting with the technical people who have been engaged directly in the disabling. I am sure I will also see the IAEA people who have been there since Yongbyon was shut down some several months ago. And I think the IAEA has performed really excellently, and I want to have the opportunity to thank some of their people for the hard work that they have done. I also look forward to meeting some of the DPRK technical people and to make sure that everybody is working well together.
QUESTION: Mr. Ambassador, in connection with the declaration, should North Korea declare its last nuclear property in this area?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I think in the declaration — we have said all nuclear programs need to be declared, and I think all means all. So let’s see what they have, but certainly we will be having some preliminary discussions in anticipation of that full declaration being submitted to the six parties.
QUESTION: Can we expect the declaration by year’s end?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Yes, because that is part of the undertaking.
QUESTION: The timing of lifting DPRK out of terrorist sponsoring list is directly related with how you evaluate their declaration?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, we are making progress on that, and obviously this is a very important issue. And I can assure you we are working hard on that, as is the DPRK.
QUESTION: Are you bringing along with you some kind of letter from President Bush to Kim Jung Il by any chance?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I do not have any letters with me.
QUESTION: Do you have any plans to visit Kaesung Complex?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No plans to visit Kaesung Complex.
QUESTION: What will your talks focus on with Kim Kye Gwan?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I think with Kim Kye Gwan, we will be talking about things we all need to get done by the end of December. And I can talk to him about what we are up to, and he can tell me what they are up to. And then I think we will be talking about the expected Six-Party meeting in Beijing for the end of next week.

And I think, very importantly, I would like to have a preliminary discussion with him to get his ideas on where we will go in ’08 because we really need to move on to the next phase. I would like to see the disabling actions which have been, I think, up until now very successful. I’d like to see them move into dismantling actions. Similarly, I would like to see us get to the abandonment phase of all nuclear programs, and that is what we have to really focus on in ’08. So, it is going to be a busy month of December, but it’s going to be an even busier year of ’08.
QUESTION: Can we expect a Six-Party meeting on December 6, 7, 8 [inaudible]?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, we are ready. And I think the Chinese are ready. And we have to see what other delegations are prepared to do. I know the Chinese are working very hard to organize that for the 8^th of December.
QUESTION: Is it up to North Korea now to consent to the date or —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I am sorry?
QUESTION: Is it up to North Korea to agree to the dates or —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I mean you have to ask the Chinese and the North Koreans on that. Okay, good to see you all. Nice to be back.
QUESTION: [inaudible] trading with the enemies act comes at about the same time as the removal?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Yeah, we are working very hard on that. I think we are making progress on that issue. That is something I’ll talk to Kim Kye Gwan about. I would rather talk to him before I talk to the press here in Seoul.
QUESTION: Which way are you going to use when you go to DPRK this time, by air or just the same way as you went there before?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Are you a tourist agency giving me a tip on — [Laughter] I think I will be flying.
QUESTION: Here or in Beijing?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think somewhere here, but I don’t do the logistics. Someone else is working on that. Alright, thank you.

# # #

Press Availability at Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Seoul, Korea
November 29, 2007

QUESTION: Was there a discussion with Ambassador Hill and Ambassador Chun?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I just had a good discussion with Ambassador Chun. We discussed the way forward on this phase two — in particular, the disablement actions and the fact that we are expecting a declaration very shortly. We both declared ourselves ready to attend a head of delegation meeting, should one get scheduled later next week. We also talked a little about what we might expect in the next phase — that is the phase that comes after disablement — and what we hope will be the final phase. So, it was all-in-all a good discussion. I am going to go back to the hotel and meet with Sung Kim who has just come on the airplane back from Pyongyang and get briefed on that. And then I think we will meet again at dinner time.

QUESTION: Mr. Ambassador, did you agree on what level of declaration would be acceptable if North Korea hands over a draft to China ““ what you both expect, South Korea and the U.S.?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We had a discussion on what we would both expect to see in terms of the declaration, what elements we’d expect to see in the declaration, and what level of specificity we would expect that each element discuss.

QUESTION: Could you elaborate a little bit?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, but we discussed the sorts of things we would expect to see. A declaration has to include nuclear programs, nuclear facilities, and very importantly, nuclear materials — because one of the key elements of the declaration will be the amount of separated plutonium that North Korea has harvested from the Yongbyon facility. We discussed all of those things.

QUESTION: What will the declaration say about uranium?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, it’s got to describe whatever program DPRK has on uranium. We are working with the DPRK to try to clarify that because they are committed to clarifying it and to making sure that it is discussed to mutual satisfaction — resolved.

QUESTION: [inaudible] — if they have a uranium program, will the declaration —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, we have to see. You know we have not finished our discussions with the DPRK on that. We would have to see what program they have. It is hard to answer at this point because it’s kind of theoretical.

QUESTION: What has been disabled so far?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: What has been disabled? Well, I am going to go talk to Sung Kim about that because he was just at the facility. They have undertaken disabling action in each of the three facilities — the fuel fabrication, the reactor, and the reprocessing facility. I think there are some 10 or 11 actions that were anticipated. I think today, or yesterday rather, they were dealing with the disabling of the inside of the cooling tower to render the cooling tower unusable. I think one of the reasons I want to go there is to see it myself. But it is a number of actions, the sum total of which is to make it difficult and expensive to put the facility back in use.

QUESTION: What about the irradiated fuel lines from the reactor? Who is going to get them?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, that has to be determined how those will be handled, but I think in the meantime, the idea is that they need to be discharged from the reactor and put in casks for —

QUESTION: They have not been discharged yet?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, because we have been concerned about the facility used for when they are discharged — the place that we would put them when they are discharged. That has to be cleaned up to the satisfaction of our workers who are dealing with us.

QUESTION: It seems clear that the declaration deadline is by the end of this year, but could the declaration come in phases thereafter?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think we would like to have the declaration by the end of this year. We think we all know what the elements should be, and we have to work with the North Koreans to ensure that the declaration we get by the end of the year is as complete as possible. Our hope is really to have declaration and disablement completed, so that we can move on to the next phase which is dismantlement and disablement of additional facilities. Right now we started with the disablement of the Yongbyon facility, but of course, there are other nuclear programs that would need to be disabled, and those programs and facilities would be described in the declaration.

QUESTION: Would it be just one, and only one, declaration?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, you know, right now we need to have a look at what this declaration is. We have to see what is being produced, and then we’ll take it from there. What is important is that the DPRK is required to list all of their programs, facilities, and all the materials. That is what the declaration is for — that’s the purpose –so we have a complete understanding of the universe of their nuclear facilities, programs, and materials in North Korea. Secondly, we agreed that we would begin the disablement of these nuclear programs and facilities with the Yongbyon facility, but obviously there will have to be additional facilities as we move forward. But as we move forward into January, we also want to get on to the next phase, which is the dismantlement of facilities as well as the abandonment of the separated plutonium. We have a lot of work to do. December is going to be a very busy month, and it is going to be followed by an even busier year.

QUESTION: What about the nuclear war-heads that they’ve already built?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I think any nuclear — any war-heads or any firing devices would have to be included in the declaration, as we want to know what they have in that regard. It is closely related to the weapons-grade plutonium, the separated plutonium. We need to see how that’s going to be treated in the declaration. That is one of the issues we will be working on.

QUESTION: [inaudible] do the war-heads fall under dismantlement?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think the war-heads — the most important issue, of course, is the nuclear material. Certainly they would be required to abandon war-heads. The concern, of course, is that you can rebuild a war-head. What we want to do is make sure we have all the nuclear material. We would, of course, expect that as part of the declaration one of the nuclear programs would be the war-head program. We would need to know what they’ve got there and how we will deal with that in the context of complete denuclearization.

QUESTION: You have been at this for so long — what does it mean for you to actually go to Yongbyon to see what really happened?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, it will mean a lot, not only in my ability to describe it better to you in the future, but also, I think, it will be a real indication that we have indeed made some progress. I suspect too, though, that when I get there and see what we’ve done, I will also be struck by how much more we need to get done. I am looking forward to seeing it. But to some extent, I will draw some optimism from what has been done. And to another extent, I will draw some pessimism by what needs to be done in the future. This is a process that’s taken us a couple of years to get where we are now. I think, as we make progress, people need to understand that we have a long way to go. I suspect that we’ll see that very clearly when I see the Yongbyon facility. If you excuse me, I really have to get moving here.
QUESTION: There has been some speculation —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: You already asked a question, didn’t you? [Laughter] Can’t you have someone else ask?

QUESTION: There has been speculation that you are going to meet with Mr. Kim Yang-gon from North Korea, who is visiting Seoul.
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, I think the only meeting I have planned — you mean here?

QUESTION: In Seoul.
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, I do not have any meeting planned. I think he is staying in another wing in the Lotte Hotel or something.

QUESTION: What about your schedule for the rest of the weekend before you leave?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think the Embassy knows about my schedule, but I have a number of meetings tomorrow, then fewer meetings over the weekend. Then I leave first thing Monday morning.

QUESTION: Will you have to get back to Seoul after North Korea?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I don’t know. You have to check with the Embassy. I really don’t know. Okay, see you later.

# # #

Remarks to the Media in Korea
Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Remarks following lunch with the American Chamber of Commerce
Seoul, Korea
November 29, 2007
QUESTION: Was the declaration acceptable to you?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: First of all we don’t have the declaration. We understand that the DPRK has completed, pretty much, the work on the declaration. When I go to the DPRK on Monday, I look forward to having a discussion about it with the understanding that the declaration will be delivered to the chair of the Six-Parties — that is to the Chinese. It will be one of the main topics of discussion when the heads of delegation meet in Beijing, a meeting that we expect to be at the latter part of next week, 6^th of December I believe. But we’re waiting for an announcement from the Chinese to that effect.
QUESTION: And is it your understanding that the list of nuclear programs should include [inaudible] enriched uranium programs?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well it is our view that the list programs should be all programs — that is all facilities, all programs and all materials. Now the DPRK has maintained that it does not have an on-going uranium enrichment program. Nonetheless they also said to the denuclearization working group in Pyongyang that they would address this issue to mutual satisfaction. So we are continuing to discuss the matter of uranium enrichment. And based on the progress in those discussions, I believe that by the end of the year, we can come to a mutual satisfaction. But I don’t want to talk at this point what’s on the list until we actually see the list.
QUESTION: Assistant Secretary Hill, while you are there, will you also be looking at the possibility of extending this executive presence to that of a liaison office?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Any presence, any on-going U.S. presence, today in the DPRK is directly related to the technical task of addressing the Yongbyon disabling. We do not at this time have any plans for a liaison office, nor have the North Koreans ever expressed any interest in a liaison office. We had made very clear to the North Koreans that upon denuclearization — complete denuclearization that includes of course abandonment of the weapons-grade plutonium that is already produced — that upon complete denuclearization, we will be prepared to establish a normal relationship with the DPRK that would include embassies. But that has to be upon denuclearization.
QUESTION: Ambassador Hill, during your stay at Pyongyang, will you ask to see a rough draft of some sort of preliminary list of the declaration?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: You know I think it is important to understand that — as we go forward on these very important benchmarks — that we are doing this in the Six-Party process, and that China, which has played a really excellent role as the chairman of this process, I think is responsible for ensuring that all the parties fulfill their tasks in the Six-Party agreement. So, to be sure, I will be having a lot of discussions about the declaration. But any actual declaration needs to be handled by the Chinese and presented to the Six-Party meeting.
QUESTION: You mentioned that you will have verified a solution by the end of the year. Does that mean that North Koreans are showing willingness to invite U.S. or other personnel to verify those declared programs?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well I think that what it means is that the DPRK understands that, as we go forward, that verification needs to be part of any process. And that therefore in building trust with the DPRK — and we have been doing that — it has also been very important that that trust is used to expand the opportunities for verification. From our point of view, with any agreement, we need to be able to justify it within Washington, within our legislative branch. And therefore we need to be assured that we can verify what is done. So as we go forward, I believe there is an understanding in the DPRK that verification needs to be a part of any agreement.
QUESTION: If HEU is not included in the upcoming declaration, how serious is that? Is that a deal-breaker for the phase?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We need a complete understanding of HEU, of their program. Or if it is not an active program, we need a complete understanding of its past programs. But we cannot put ourselves in the position of trying to ignore things. We have to have clarity on all of these programs. And the DPRK understands that. I think that was reflected in the statement of the denuclearization working group in Shenyang in August.
QUESTION: One more question about what you said earlier, for my own use, to see if I got it right.
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: All right.
QUESTION: When you said that you’re asking for the rough draft of the list, etc., does that mean [inaudible]?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I am sorry, what?
QUESTION: About asking for a rough draft [inaudible]?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, they are providing drafts to the Chinese.
QUESTION: Does that mean that you will [inaudible]?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We will have a discussion, but we are not receiving drafts. That is something that is done in the Six-Party process. But we will discuss it. And I hope that in the course of that discussion, we will know what’s coming in a draft.

# # #

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher HillPress Q & A

After Meeting at the Ministry of Unification

Seoul, Korea

November 30, 2007

QUESTION: (inaudible)

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, I just had a very good discussion with the Minister. We were comparing notes on our two processes. I was giving him my perspective on the Six-Party process, and he was telling me about the North-South dialogue and the progress that has been made. I think that we’ve always made it clear that we very much support this North-South dialogue, but what has been important also is to have a good communication and a good ability to compare notes. That is exactly what we are doing today.QUESTION: South Korea is proposing a lot of aid to North Korea as a result of this summit. What do you think of this massive aid to North Korea and what impact it might have on the Six-Party process?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I think — first of all — a lot of this assistance, as I understand it, is conditional on action by the National Assembly. My impression is that these are commitments that will be played out over time. What I hope is that it is understood that as the DPRK makes progress on denuclearization, that assistance of this kind will be more available to them. I hope that the effect will be to make the DPRK understand that the faster it moves on denuclearization, the faster it can receive assistance.QUESTION: Would you like to see this aid tied more toward a nuclear program, towards progress —

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, again, I think we have always understood that North-South dialogue is a parallel process; it’s not the Six-Party process. Some of it, in fact, involves humanitarian process. So I think what’s important is that it be coordinated with the Six-Party process. I do believe we are able to do that. Okay. I think I need to get on to my next appointment. So see you all later.###