N. Korea will miss year-end deadline to declare nukes

No surprise there.  At this point, it would really only be news if North Korea actually met the deadline, or made a full disclosure at all during Kim Jong Il’s life span.

A South Korean government official on Tuesday said, “There is no sign yet that North Korea has decided to make an accurate declaration. It’s improbable that the North will declare its nuclear programs by the end of the year, with only a week remaining before the New Year.”

It is unclear whether the North is positively refusing to make a full declaration of all materials and programs under a Feb. 13 six-nation agreement or whether it is stalling to get a bigger compensation package from the U.S.  A positive refusal would derail the entire framework.  * * * *

According to South Korean officials, North Korea is dragging its feet while denying the main U.S. allegations: that it has or had a uranium enrichment program and transferred nuclear materials to Syria.  [Chosun Ilbo]

Is “both” an acceptable answer?

The North’s chief envoy to the Six-Party Talks Kim Kye Gwan said to his Chinese counterpart Wu Dawei that the North is not obliged to declare the alleged Uranium Enrichment Program (UEP) by year’s end, reported Tokyo Newspaper on the 23 of December.

Kim said to Wu Dawei, “Plutonium is the key item that has to be declared,” the Newspaper reported.

Kim was quoted as saying, “We are willing to declare all nuclear programs by year’s end. However, as to the alleged development of UEP, we will offer an explanation demanded by the U.S. at an appropriate time.'” Kim’s words suggest that the North would not declare the UEP this time.

The Newspaper also reported that the North emphatically denied of having any joint nuclear project with Syria. In regard to opening another round of the Six-Party Talks the North said, “It is too early to schedule for the next meeting,” thus indicating that the North would not participate in the Six-Party Talks for the time being.  [Daily NK]

At this point, you have to hope the Administration has a “Plan B” to wreak financial devastation on North Korea’s palace economy.  One sliver of encouragement is that with the South Korean election now more-or-less favorably resolved, we could execute Plan B without concern that the resulting backlash would land Comrade Chung in the Blue House.  Domestically, there’s little question that Bush was prepared to bend over backwards to achieve a diplomatic resolution.  Appeasement advocates will naturally try to blame Bush if Agreed Framework 2 breaks down, but recent revelations of Kim Jong Il’s mendacity have given Bush plenty of cover.
I still lay 80% odds that the Administration will do as I’ve predicted:  engage in an extensive and lengthy renegotiation until it leaves office.  That would effectively extend the status quo.  A North Korean refusal to fully disclose its programs probably also means it won’t be scratched from the terror-sponsor list, and that other big concessions from the U.S. are also unlikely.

On the other hand, North Korea has now had a year to write its list, and if we’re to believe Chris Hill, he’s given the North Koreans plenty of private elaboration on just what its disclosure should contain, despite the absence of such elaboration in the actual agreement.  There’s no justification for giving the North Koreans more time when their motives are this transparent.