Are They Losing Their Fear?

When I spoke of the many recent signs that the erosion of state control is accelerating in North Korea, I said that the erosion of fear would be the decisive factor. So I watch things like his carefully:

Discontent with the top leadership is growing in North Korea writes Lee Ki Dong, a Researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy. Lee published a paper entitled “An Analysis of Changes in the North Korean Political System Based on the Testimonies of Defectors. [….]

However, Lee points out, “the “˜Supreme Leader system’ does not seem to be rooted in the citizens’ consciousness. Many defectors blame Kim Jong Il for operating a poor administration. These days, North Korean citizens ridicule Kim Jong Il as the “˜potbelly,’ or “˜that guy.’ This shows Kim’s fall from trust among the people. [DailyNK]

Admittedly, it’s rather thin gruel by itself, but I’m starting to think that this year, things really are coming apart in the North. After all the predictions of imminent collapse, this time, some significant act of open rebellion is much more likely than it has been in previous years.

When that does happen, it will probably be localized, contained, and put down, but at a high cost to the regime and its internal cohesion. China could survive June 1989 because it had a superstate’s resources to draw on and economic growth to pacify some of the dissenters. North Korea doesn’t have those things. It has only fear.