U-Tubed, Part 4

Commenter ChosunHapa was kind enough to drop some links to Chris Hill’s testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday (transcript / video). Hill says that the “disablement” of (some of) North Korea’s nuclear facilities is proceeding well, contrary to what other reports tell us. He also assures us of his grave concern about Japanese abductees and human rights … which we’ll pursue on a separate track of course, after Kim Jong Il has what he wants from us. Take Hill’s word for what it’s worth (very / little). Here’s the full video:

Oops. Sorry. Here it is:

GI Korea links to a KBS report, sourced to Hill’s testimony, claiming that samples of North Korean aluminum did not test positive for enriched uranium.

U.S. chief nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill has told the U.S. Senate he believes North Korea does not have the capability to produce uranium for nuclear operations. Hill stated that according to inspection results of North Korea’s facilities, the aluminum tubes suspected of being used for uranium enrichment have been cleared of those allegations, although the inspection was only carried out on a number of the tubes. [KBS Global]

This, of course follows this intelligence assessment by one day:

The [intelligence community] continues to assess that North Korea has pursued a uranium enrichment capability at least in the past, and judges with at least moderate confidence that the effort continues today. [DNI, National Threat Assessment, 5 Feb 08]

There’s an even bigger problem with the KBS story: it doesn’t fit with what Hill actually said:

[T]hey have made many purchases that are entirely consistent with the development of a highly enriched uranium program. And as you know, the CIA has assessed with high confidence that they did have … an effort to develop this program.

I’m willing to assume a honest mistake by Hill on “high” versus “moderate” confidence inconsistency [Update: see Bruce Klingner’s comment below on this], but I’m less charitable with KBS, given that Korean journalism isn’t having a very good week. So who should we believe here, KBS or the Washington Post? Hill never even mentions aluminum tubes in the transcript or on the video. It’s possible, of course, that he said it in response to a senator’s question after the video ends, but KBS’s report still mischaracterizes Hill on the greater issue of North Korea’s uranium program. Overall, I have to assess this one with low confidence. Which, if you have been following the whole Agreed Framework 2.0 act, is about all you should give Hill.

[Update: From the comments below, it sounds like (a) KBS did indeed get it wrong, (b) a senator did ask about aluminum tubes, and (c) that Hill said that a small number of samples tested did not show traces of enriched uranium. The previous WaPo report said that samples of smelted-down aluminum tested positive for enriched uranium. Either Hill is wrong or the Washington Post’s sources are wrong. With such a knowledgeable group of commenters I have here — people who read intelligence assessments and attend Senate hearings, thanks — I’m hoping that someone can help me explain this.]