Just Seven Months to Go: Kim Jong Il Stalls, We Let Him

All signs point to North Korea viewing last week’s New York Phil concert as a substituting for denuclearization, rather than complimenting it. We are no closer to a North Korea presenting its declaration. To the extent North Korea believes that the Clapton Gambit has shifted our public conversation to superficial gestures, or that stalling will earn more concessions, we’re further from it. Evans Revere’s “16-inch broadside of soft power” impressed Kim Jong Il approximately as much as three inches of soft power would impress Jenna Jameson.

Chris Hill hung around Beijing for days after the concert, hoping to meet with his North Korean counterpart. He was snubbed not just by Kim Jong Il’s mouthpiece, but by Kim Jong Il himself, who was in Beijing meeting with the Chinese.

U.S. officials had warned the good will generated by the emotional concert would be meaningless without North Korea fulfilling its requirements under an international nuclear accord reached last year. [AP, via IHT]

I am also reminded of those rumors — that State was about to set another deaddline for North Korea to disclose its weapons. That is safely in Kim Jong Il’s rear view mirror, and while I sense the end of patience here, I do not think Chris Hill’s words mean what he thinks they mean to Kim Jong Il:

“Time is short, and I would hope we could get on with that this month,” Hill told reporters during a visit to Vietnam before he was to depart for Washington later Monday.

In any event, it’s doubtful that the end of patience will have any significance now. Kim Jong Il is counting on a better deal from President Obama, and if the State Department hasn’t the intelligence to think of any better ideas than throwing more concessions at Kim Jong Il, “do no more harm” is probably the best we can hope for until the third Clinton Administration ends. One bit of harm it hints it will not do is removing North Korea from the terror-sponsor list, for which we can thank Senator Sam Brownback and Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen for rallying opposition in the Senate and the House. State is now said to be considering splitting North Korea’s declaration into parts, which just means multiplying this round of stalling, and giving North Korea more opportunities to demand fresh concessions. They can always think of something.

North Korea is making it clear to its people that the New York Phil’s visit changed nothing:

After the Philharmonic’s concert, North Korea’s state media ran brief reports that focused on the performance, but the central government has made no comment on what impact the event might have on the country’s strained relations with the outside world. In North Korea’s first official comment since the Philharmonic concert, the government heaped criticism on ongoing U.S.-South Korean military exercises. [….]

The Foreign Ministry said the military maneuvers demonstrate Washington “is invariably sticking to its hostile policy to stifle the (North) by force.” The presence of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and submarine in the exercises amounts to a “nuclear threat and blackmail” that “will only put a brake on the process of the denuclearization of the peninsula,” the ministry said in the statement carried by KCNA.

And just to present us with a perfect example of what the white-coated fellows call “projection,” the North Koreans then used their standard code-talk for nuclear threats by saying they would “take necessary countermeasures including those to further bolster up all its deterrent forces.”

Tell me how this deal is not a complete and manifest failure, not just at denuclearizing North Korea, but also at burnishing President Bush’s legacy. I can’t think of a single person who approves of Bush’s current policy who is remotely likely to vote for him or who will defend his legacy a year from now. A hundred years from now, Korean nationalists will compare Agreed Framework 2.0 to the Treaty of Portsmouth and the division of Korea into occupation zones (only this time, they’ll have a point). Neither Bush, nor his diplomats, nor the critics who are taking an intermission from despising him on this single, overlooked issue can cite a single tangible accomplishment this policy has produced. That assures an orphaned legacy.

Another Chris Hill transcript below the fold:

Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill
Press Roundtable Hanoi, Vietnam
March 3, 2008

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Thank you very much. It’s a great pleasure to be back in Hanoi. This is my fourth visit here. Every time I come I am reminded of the progress that’s being made in Vietnam in every respect. The United States very much values this relationship we are building with Vietnam. I must say that to this day our President fondly remembers his own visit here. Our relationship with Vietnam is of course very strong in the economic area, symbolized by the presence of so many American companies here and by the growing trade relationships. But we also have a broadening and deepening political dialogue with Vietnam which now goes beyond just bilateral ties but also to the more multilateral ties — that is, Vietnam’s increasing importance in ASEAN and also Vietnam’s membership this year in the UN Security Council. It is still fairly early in the day, so I haven’t yet met with Vietnamese officials. I’ll be doing that later this afternoon with meetings at the Foreign Ministry, at the Communist Party, and at the National Assembly. Then late tonight I begin my return to the United States. I’ve been on the road for some 16 days. I’m totally out of shirts and clothes, so I’m looking forward to getting back. But it’s been a very good trip, and I’m very pleased to wrap it up with this visit to Vietnam. With those opening comments, why don’t I go to some questions?

QUESTION: During your 16-day trip you spent more time than scheduled in Beijing.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Yes.

QUESTION: And this weekend Kim Jong-il visited the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang. It seems unusual. Are Washington and Beijing working together to ramp up the pressure a little bit?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: You’re quite correct, I spent a lot of time in Beijing. Actually, I made three separate trips to Beijing during this overall trip. Rather than talk about ramping up pressure, I’d rather ramp up the effort to find a solution. We are hopeful that we can find the formula for moving forward, but what we need from the North Koreans is a willingness to give us a complete and correct declaration. We look forward to meeting with the North Koreans and working toward that end. Of course, if we can get through this complete and correct declaration we will be able to move on to the third phase, which for us will be a very decisive phase — because that’s when we look forward to seeing if we can have the North Koreans fulfill the requirements of the September ’05 joint statement and to try to get to the end of this very long process.

I met with the North Koreans about a week ago. We had looked forward to another meeting. I assume we will get that organized at some point in the near future and see if we can get through this phase two and on to phase three.

QUESTION: The meeting with Kim Jong-il at the Chinese Embassy, do you think it’s significant?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think he’s gone to the Chinese Embassy before. In fact, I think he’s also visited the Russian embassy in the past. So I really am not in a position to weigh its significance. I don’t think it was related to the talks I was having in Beijing.

QUESTION: I’m from Hanoi Television. I would like to ask you this question. You said you will meet with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Communist Party this afternoon. So would you please let us know what will you discuss with them?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I look forward to reviewing the state of our bilateral relations. I also look forward to talking about some of the regional issues, including our mutual interest in strengthening ASEAN. Finally, I also look forward to talking about Vietnam’s tenure in the Security Council and Vietnam’s interest in what they want to accomplish during that time in the Security Council. I might add that we are looking forward to hosting the Prime Minister of Vietnam at some point to Washington, and I would be interested in hearing from the Vietnamese if they’ve given any thought to the scheduling of that.

QUESTION: Good morning, Mr. Hill. Grant McCool from Reuters. I wonder if you could just elaborate a little on the issues concerning the United Nations Security Council. Is it part of your job to talk to the Vietnamese about what their positions in recent UN Security Council issues, namely Kosovo and Iran, where they differ from the United States on these?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I would expect to talk to them about the Security Council, and with regard to that I think the most important ongoing issue right now is Iran. I don’t think Kosovo is on the Security Council agenda at this time. But I would certainly be in a position to talk to them about our views on the situation in Kosovo and exchange information on the expectation that perhaps at some point it could be an issue for discussion with the Security Council, as it has been in the past. I would also like to share views on the situation in Burma, which is not on the Security Council agenda now but could conceivably be on it at some future date. The Security Council is the world’s premier organization for dealing with threats to peace and security around the globe, and I think it’s appropriate that we stay in close contact with all the members of the Security Council. So I would be doing that.

QUESTION: I’m from Japanese news wire, Kyodo News. Last year, when the General Secretary of the Vietnam Communist Party Nong Duc Manh visited North Korea, both countries announced Kim Jong-il would visit Vietnam. So how do you think about the possibility of Kim Jong-il’s visit to Vietnam? And concerning advice for North Korea, what kind of role in this region do you, the United States, expect from Vietnam? Thank you very much.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I appreciate the questions about Chairman Kim Jong-il’s schedule, whether he’s at the Chinese embassy or visiting Vietnam, but I really don’t have much to say about his schedule. I suggest you might want to talk to his spokesman and see what he has to say about his plans. [Laughter]. I will say that, in terms of advice, certainly Vietnam has a lot to offer North Korea. I think Vietnam has come through a very difficult past, some very painful moments in the past, and Vietnam has made some very good decisions. We can see Vietnam’s economy beginning to grow in a sustained way. We can see Vietnam joining the international economic community with the WTO as its 150th member. There is a lot of inspiration that other countries can take from Vietnam, and I hope that North Korea could look at Vietnam’s successful experiences and perhaps learn something from Vietnam. So anyone who visits Vietnam I think has the benefit of learning a lot. That’s certainly why I’m here, and I would hope others would come here as well.

QUESTION: I’m from NHK. When do you expect to resume the Six-Party Talks on North Korean nuclear issues?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We first need to get through this problem of getting a complete and correct declaration. When we’re through that, we will take our obligations in the so-called second phase and then try to move on to the third phase. So if we can resolve these matters in the next few weeks, let’s say — which I think is possible — I think we could perhaps, depending on the views of the Chinese host, we could maybe get together for a Six-Party meeting to plan out the third phase. So time is short, and I would hope we can get on with that this month.

QUESTION: Complete and correct declaration?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Complete and correct.

QUESTION: Complete and correct declaration is about plutonium or uranium or —

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: It’s the overall declaration of all of their nuclear programs so that we will be able to identify all the programs that need to be abandoned pursuant to their requirements under the September ’05 statement. We’ve had a number of discussions with the North Koreans on what is meant by complete and correct. We have to resolve this in order to move on to the next stage. North Korea needs to understand that its security will be guaranteed when it has good relations with its neighbors. And it will have good relations with its neighbors when it gives up the nuclear ambition.

QUESTION: I’m from Laborer Newspaper of Ho Chi Minh City. On February 22nd the Court of Appeals in New York rejected a complaint by Vietnamese Agent Orange victims who are suing American chemical companies. After this decision some people comment that this is a step back in the relationship between Vietnam and the U.S. So what do you think about that comment?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, I can say that we take this issue seriously. We are working with the Vietnamese Government on this issue. We are working multilaterally on this issue, because we feel it’s very important. And we’ve also contributed a great sum of money to trying to deal with this, and we will continue to do so. We realize this is a difficult issue. We realize there are very strong feelings associated with this issue. For that reason and others we will continue to work closely with Vietnamese authorities and international authorities and continue to contribute.

QUESTION: I’m with NPR. There have been complaints and comments in the Southeast Asia region that the United States has taken its eye off the ball in the region — that China has stepped in, increasing its diplomatic visits in the area. But I also note that you’re here and Admiral Keating was here and the Secretary of Defense was in the region. Is this a coincidence? Or is this an attempt to balance China’s influence?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: First of all, we have a great interest in working closely with the states in the region, and so the visits we make here are not in relationship to the visits that Chinese officials may make. They’re in relationship to our interests in this region. We don’t believe that more of China means less of the U.S. We believe that countries here have an interest in good relations with China. We welcome those good relations. And we look forward to continuing to be very active here. I might add that in terms of our interest in ASEAN, we did recently appoint a person to become our Ambassador to ASEAN. That name, Scot Marciel, was forwarded to the Senate just a week or two ago. And we look forward to trying to get him confirmed by the Senate so he can assume his duties as an Ambassador to ASEAN. I have made many trips to this region. In fact, I will be coming back next month to make a trip to Indonesia. I very much valued the opportunity to go to Thailand on this trip. I have not been there in about six months, and it was a good opportunity to talk with the members of the new government there. So I can assure you that the U.S. interest in this region remains very strong, and we in no way are concerned about Chinese interests here. Quite the contrary, we look forward to doing all we can to see that this area can continue to grow and prosper. I think one of the most extraordinary events of my lifetime has been to see the economic development of the Southeast Asian states.

Finally, I want to say that our interests in the region here rest on a very broad base. That is, we’re interested in security relations with countries here. We’re also very interested in good economic relations and political relations as well.

There are some issues of common concern. The situation in Burma certainly comes to mind. But we look forward to working with these countries. We’re very proud of the relationships we have here, bilateral relationships. We’re also interested in being a part of the sort of growing multilateral architecture that’s developing here. So this is a very exciting part of the world, and we look forward to continuing very long, durable relations here in the future.

QUESTION: Do you think Vietnam shares some similar history with North Korea? Are you asking the Vietnamese to act as go-betweens or to deliver messages to Pyongyang?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, we’re not asking Vietnam to be a mediator or a go-between with North Korea. That’s not a role we’re asking them to play nor a role that they would be particularly interested in playing. Nor are we asking the North Koreans to ask the Vietnamese what the Vietnamese experience has been in getting their economy moving the way they have. But I wish the North Koreans would ask that question, and I wish the Vietnamese would answer it in as detailed as way as possible — because what has happened in Vietnam in the last half decade is nothing short of extraordinary. I think every country, even North Korea, should be very inspired by the progress made by the Vietnamese people in bringing this economy up. So I do hope North Korea asks that question. Thank you very much. I’ve got a full program here thanks to Ambassador Michalak and the Embassy. They’re kind of pulling me around to one meeting after the other. So it’s great to see you all.

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