More Food Shortages Reported in N. Korea’s Main Grain-Producing Regions; A Grim Mood in Pyongyang
There are two new reports from the Buddhist NGO Good Friends, which has good sources inside North Korea. You will see that I have already blogged about some of the material in these reports when details emerged in press reports, or in the Daily NK. I will just add a few significant details that I gleaned from the reports, which you can find here and here.
There are no rations, even in Pyongyang, except for the city center, where they have been reduced to 40% or less of the normal ration. In the city, there are rumors that there will be famine in the countryside, and what Good Friends describes as “government officials” say this will an “arduous” year, borrowing the word often used to describe the Great Famine of the 1990’s. Morale in Pyongyang sounds very low:
A professor who lives in a central district in Pyongyang mentioned that the food ration for March has dropped down to only 20 per cent of the normal ration. In addition, an official said that a rumor that the rice price is likely to rise from 1,500-1600won to 3,000 has been circulating among residents. The official continued to say that “when I asked people what made them believe the rice price increase is going to take place, they said it is because the food supply for government officials has been cut and the local trade has been banned. Overall, things are getting worse. People expressed their concerns about survival. Residents seemed to be in fear of how much the rice price is going to soar; he described the gloomy mood of the public these days. [Good Friends blog]
Similarly, there are no rations in the “core” city of Pyongsong, just north of Pyongyang, and the reported home of North Korea’s currency-counterfeiting operations. Market prices for rice have begun to climb sharply in other regions, too:
As of 3/13, the average rice price across the nation was 1,400-1,600 won per kg. But the prices are higher in certain counties located in areas outside the provincial seats. The rice price in Jongju County in North Pyongan Province hit 1,700 won per kg, which is 100 won higher than in Sinuiju. The prices for rice currently rival those back in September and October of last year when they peaked. The price of rice in Sinuiju last October 5th was 1,600 won, which is the same price as today. The price of rice in Pyongyang last October 5th was 1,500 won, the same price today. The price for corn oil also jumped noticeably. What used to be traded at 4,000-5,000 won last October is now sold at 6,000-7,000 won. [Good Friends blog]
Rumors that prices will climb much higher are likely to lead to hoarding. So the bidding war has begun, and contrary to the Washington Post’s projection, it seems possible that large numbers of underprivileged North Koreans will soon be priced out of the market. Some North Koreans will probably be able to buy rice cookers and plastic surgery this year, even as that the less fortunate ones could weaken, or even die, in large numbers.
There is also more detail about those protests in Chongjin and Haeju over market restrictions.
Some counties that reported they had met their production goals turned over substantially smaller amounts of grain to state stores. This could indicate that the statistics themselves were falsified, or that production estimates were based on what was growing in the fields, and that much of the production was diverted since then. This is consistent with longstanding reports of widespread corruption and diversion.
Finally, this year’s food crisis is already threatening next year’s food supply. North Korean farmers in several areas of the country are now so weak that they can’t plant crops, so at best, this spring’s crisis will affect this fall’s harvest.
The task of planning for the farming season has been negatively impacted since the workers who had not been given food have stopped reporting to work. The managers of each farm collective have recognized the seriousness of the situation and reported to their superiors. The issue was taken up and discussed in the Provincial Party Meeting for South Hwanghae Province this past February. The Party Secretary has ordered the city and country party secretaries to strengthen ideological training for the farm workers while instructing the police to determine the farm workers who are not coming to work and compel them using all legal tools to return to work. They emphasized that everyone will really starve to death next year if the farm workers don’t do work during the crucial seeding season, so get them back to work using all necessary means. [Good Friends blog]
Shortages of salt will affect the ability of North Koreans to preserve food, especially kimchee, which they would otherwise survive on during the winter and spring. Other potential effects (not reported by Good Friends, but watch for them) include pre-harvesting of crops before they mature and the slaughtering of draft animals. We will know that a region’s situation has become disastrous if large numbers of people begin leaving their homes in search of food.
Hat tip: Jack.