Six Two Party Talks: Doubling Down a Bad Bet?

Back on February 23rd, I predicted that we’d see the first signs that the Bush Administration was losing patience with North Korea’s stall tactics. I also predicted that this recognition would amount to little in practice. Things seems to be turning out pretty much as expected.

United States Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow said … there is a ‘sense of impatience building up’ among participants in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program over the long delay by Pyongyang to fully declare its nuclear programs. [….]

‘We will be prepared to do these two things [de-list North Korea as a terror sponsor and lift trade restrictions] only in parallel with North Korea’s obligations,’ he said. ‘There is a sense of impatience building up, and we want to get on with it.’ [Joongang Ilbo]

I sense that the Bush Administration is about to double down a bad bet. With Chris “Kim Jong” Hill headed for a meeting with his North Korean counterpart in Geneva, I’m guessing that the Administration is prepared to offer significant additional concessions and substantially soften the requirements for North Korea’s declaration, possibly by splitting it up into different pieces. These separate declarations will invariably be turned it at different times, under different circumstances, in exchange for different and additional demands the North Koreans will invent later. In practice, that will mean that several parts of that declaration won’t be received while Bush is president, which could mean they won’t be received at all.

If you don’t get anything tangible in return, it’s called “appeasement.”