Also, In a Just World, Isaac Hayes Would Still Be Alive
That night there came from the farmhouse the sound of loud singing, in which, to everyone’s surprise, the strains of Beasts of England were mixed up. At about half past nine Napoleon, wearing an old bowler hat of Mr. Jones’s, was distinctly seen to emerge from the back door, gallop rapidly round the yard, and disappear indoors again. But in the morning a deep silence hung over the farmhouse. Not a pig appeared to be stirring. It was nearly nine o’clock when Squealer made his appearance, walking slowly and dejectedly, his eyes dull, his tail hanging limply behind him, and with every appearance of being seriously ill. He called the animals together and told them that he had a terrible piece of news to impart. Comrade Napoleon was dying!
A cry of lamentation went up. Straw was laid down outside the doors of the farmhouse, and the animals walked on tiptoe. With tears in their eyes they asked one another what they should do if their Leader were taken away from them. A rumour went round that Snowball had after all contrived to introduce poison into Napoleon’s food. At eleven o’clock Squealer came out to make another announcement. As his last act upon earth, Comrade Napoleon had pronounced a solemn decree: the drinking of alcohol was to be punished by death.
By the evening, however, Napoleon appeared to be somewhat better, and the following morning Squealer was able to tell them that he was well on the way to recovery. [George Orwell, Animal Farm, Chapter 8]
The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and LA Times are quoting U.S. or Western intelligence sources that that Kim Jong Il is “seriously” or “gravely” ill. From there, the reports diverge. One senior South Korean intelligence officer says it’s “certain” that Kim Jong Il is ill. One South Korean diplomat says the illness was “not serious enough to threaten [Kim’s] life,” which may or may not contradict “Western intelligence sources” which suspect a stroke. One legislator from the leftist opposition Democratic Party, who purports to quote an intelligence source, says he’s recovering from the problem, whatever it was. The North Koreans say the reports are not only false, but “a conspiracy plot.” Let me translate this my analysis into words that may not be suitable for the President’s Daily Briefing:
Who the f*ck knows?
It’s all speculation, and probably groundless speculation at that. Who do you suppose has access to up-to-date information about Kim Jong Il’s health that would actually leak it to foreign intelligence? We have no way of knowing whether the information is (a) credible, (b) accurately interpreted, or (c) outright disinformation. And then there’s this point made by the Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler:
Still, in recent months, a variety of media outlets have reported that Kim was so weak that he could not walk 30 yards (he later appeared in public and seemed able to walk), that a group of German doctors went to North Korea to perform heart surgery on him (the doctors denied it), and that he passed away (most likely untrue because he’s since appeared in public, although at least one veteran expert has suggested the government could be using body doubles).
Meaning, I’ve written about these reported illnesses and extended absences enough times to know that we’ve never managed to figure out if there was a greater significance to any of those reports. All of them could be true, or none of them. I will boldly predict, nonetheless, that sometime within the next 20 years, Kim Jong Il will die, and there will be much rejoicing carefully disguised as mourning. Then, some time within the next five years, when one junta leader has managed to stab all of his rivals in the back and consolidate the next oligarchy, there will be a “secret speech” about His Porcine Majesty’s “mistakes.” Andrei Lankov, quoted in the L.A. Times story above, puts it this way:
“He is going to die sooner or later, and eventually one of these reports about his health will be true, but this one is probably much ado about nothing,” said Andrei Lankov, a respected Pyongyang watcher and a professor at South Korea’s Kookmin University.
Oh, and the AP’s drive-by Korea-watchers Pamela Hess and Matthew Lee — whose analysis of world events seldom fails to blend illogic and superficiality — wrote a story under the single dumbest headline I’ve seen all year:
Which I suppose is a lot like printing one that says, “Hitler Suicide Jeopardizes Non-Aggression Pact with Stalin.” Safe to say, Hess and Lee haven’t really been keeping up with the state of those talks and ought to take a few moments out of their busy schedule to read this blog now and then. Remember, children, they get paid for this. I do it for free.
Anyway, feel free to beseech the deity or fetish object of your choice that Kim Jong Il will soon join his old man in the Great Meat Locker. Sure, things could always get worse — and probably will — but that’s more likely to be because the rumors are false than because they’re not.