Sankei Shinmun: N. Korea May Announce Transfer of Power
OK, You have my undivided attention.
Quoting unidentified sources at Japan’s defense ministry, the Sankei [Shinmun] said Tokyo had information that “there will be an important announcement on (Oct.) 20th.”
The Sankei said there was speculation within the Japanese government that the North’s announcement could be about Kim’s death or a government change induced by a coup.
North Korea will also ban foreigners from entering the country starting Monday, it said, without giving further details. [AP]
Admittedly, the Sankei has a reputation for being a far-right rag, but its North Korea reporting has generally been good. The Yomiuri Shimbun has also reported that North Korean diplomats have been told to stay inside the embassy. The first I saw of this was in a question at the end of this daily press briefing at the State Department. At the time, I was too busy and too sick to blog it, but if there really is something to those health rumors about Kim Jong Il — or if those rumors are cover for him being ousted — this is the way I’d expect to hear it.
Here’s hoping that Obama-Kim “without preconditions” summit will have to be held in a mausoleum. Still, we can assume that no one managed to get into a position to replace Kim Jong Il by being enlightened, magnanimous, or reform-minded. Kim Jong Il’s death would not be the end of our problems with North Korea, but it could very well be the beginning of the end.
Update: One place you won’t see much talk of this story, oddly enough, is in the South Korea papers. The South Korean government is downplaying the reports and saying it has seen “nothing unusual,” which would suggests that the men who control the tanks either weren’t been taken by surprise, are powerless to do anything about it, or ran out of gas.
Until Oct. 20th comes around. I am not going to hope for a sudden regime change or news Kim may be gone. I do not want to get my hopes up. According to many other news outlets, they talked about two possibilities, one regarding Kim’s health (why he has not been around and the photos) or severing ties with the ROK. Also, from what I understand, no unusual movements have been detected along the border, but that may not mean anything.
In all, it is speculative, and while things are amiss in North Korea, I simply cannot put my finger on what it could be.
I want to say a lot, but I’ll wait for the announcement.
If they did transfer power already without a major social upheaval, one big enough to catch the attention of the world press, then it will be remarkable. Something I would give a very low chance of happening – say less than 5%.
If a death or coup did come this quietly, then I would push up my estimate on the ability of the nation as a whole to weather a change. – say 60-70% or higher.
ok. so that’s what this whole NK diplomats to stay near their offices were all about:
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/081024/4/3qxx9.html