Chris Hill Resignation Watch

Jack and Wolmae point to a statement by Chris Hill that Obama’s people have not invited him to stick around. On balance, I agree they probably won’t, but I’m not sure I agree that this article answers the question. First, parse Hill’s words. When asked if Obama’s people asked him to stay, he said, “I haven’t talked to anybody about my future.” Even for Hill, that statement contains a lot of loopholes. Second, consider the credibility of the source. I’ll wait for something a little more definitive before I celebrate Hill’s departure. The more important question is whether Hill’s replacement would be just as bad as Hill. That’s almost certainly the case, but he/she will probably be terrible for slightly different reasons — probably more honest and earnest than Hill, but less conniving and more naive, I’d guess.

The choice of Hillary Clinton for State greatly complicates the question of who will run our Korea policy. Before Clinton’s selection, you could say that V.P.-Elect Biden’s people — after all, Biden is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — would have played a dominant role. The selection of Clinton opens up the candidacy of a lot of holdovers from her husband’s administration. And while Clinton herself is viewed as a moderate-to-hawkish choice, many of Clinton’s minions are significantly to the left of Biden’s. If, for example, Biden’s people end up dominating the NSC while Clinton’s dominate at Foggy Bottom, it could even presage the same kind of factional battles that paralyzed the Bush Administration’s policies for so many years.