Watch Your Back, Comrade
No, this is not a post about Hillary Clinton’s role in Barack Obama’s cabinet.
I’ve read a lot of silly reporting about Kim Jong Il’s rumored stroke, but I’ve also seen and heard enough leaks from people who ought to be in the know that I’m actually starting to believe that he’s seriously debilitated. This latest one comes from former CIA officer Art Brown, and it makes it sound as though the power struggle to inherit all this is already underway:
Specifically, he mentioned Gen. Ri Myong Su, a senior military planning officer, Gen. Hyon Chol Hae, a senior military political officer, and Kim Yang Gon of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea.
Other names touched on are Kim Ok, a former secretary of Kim said to be his de facto fourth wife, and Jang Song Thaek, Kim’s younger brother-in-law who is first vice director of the Workers’ Party of Korea. [Kyodo News]
I’ve heard some very sophisticated North Korea watchers say that the Workers’ Party leadership is the key to the succession struggle, but I’m still betting on the guys with the guns. Watch for the Party to try to use the State Security Bureau to pluck away some of the most powerful military warlords in the dark of night, and whether the military just takes that lying down. You can see the potential for this sort of thing to destabilize the regime.
What it will not mean, for now, is any new diplomatic outreach to Earth or significant performance on denuclearization. For now, it’s probably very dangerous to appear to be less hard-line than your potential rival, not to mention the complexity of knowing who has the authority to negotiate what.
Even Brown, however, is saying he can’t confirm the rumors about the health of His Porcine Majesty. I still harbor my own doubts. While a Kim Jong Il health rumor is the last thing you’d expect the regime to plant intentionally, all of this does come at a time of perfect convenience for North Korea to declare the final step in its non-performance on the February 2007 nuclear disarmament. With Korea watchers of various persuasions already criticizing Chris Hill’s failure to reach a clear understanding on most of our specific differences with North Korea, Kim — or his successors — may be hard pressed to get a better deal from Obama than they got from Bush. If Kim Jong Il were to want to come back to the Obama Administration for more aid and a new deal next year, however, this story provides his apologists a certain degree of cover to explain away his non-performance this year.
Related: Ambassador Stephens warns North Korea not to try to divide the U.S. from South Korea. Given how well that’s worked for the last decade, I don’t know why the North Koreans should listen to her.
“What it will not mean, for now, is any new diplomatic outreach to Earth”
Your style keeps getting better and better . . .
wow. this was great news that KJI could be debilitated.
do you really think that :
“Watch for the Party to try to use the State Security Bureau to pluck away some of the most powerful military warlords in the dark of night, and whether the military just takes that lying down.”
don’t you think james bonds style that anyone in danger….is on the fricking move? go forge some intra country passports, start dressing as a peasant and take off!!
and this news:
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20081201_6398.php
that Hill is meeting with Kim Gae Wan in Singapore to specifically and to only sign an agreement about verification, i mean taking whatever soil samples the NK’s give, doesn’t it mean that NK has truly lost their bargaining edge? they can’t even wait till obama has signed in.
because in the end, if KJI is completely incapacitated…..can’t fricking speak properly and slobbers everywhere, actually Chris Hill can actually grow some balls and tell Kim Gae Wan to go F himself?
If he did become unable to govern over the past year, then the state has held together better than I would have predicted. I would have thought the tremors would have rippled out immediately and been readily noticeable by the world.
We have such incomplete knowledge of the North, including the ability to look back at adequate similar regimes in the past, that anything is a guess – even a best guess…..so…..being surprised by what happens in North Korea is not a character flaw — it is the norm. And best guessing is the best we can do….
I’m with James on what I’m looking for: signs that rats are leaving the ship.
Ya gotta think — whoever or whatever takes charge if Kim is really out or on the way out – is going to purge. The probability on that is high.
How much physical liquidation did Kim do when he took power? I can’t remember.
His transition was fairly smooth – in a gangster state like that, but he was prepped and had a man-god telling the people he was the anointed one.
But, maybe necessary high and mid-level North Koreans believe the next transition can also go as smoothly? With about as much head-chopping turn over???
I would place my money, however, on the idea that, in a state like North Korea, with an unprepared transition – with no clearly built up anointed one —- high and mid-level power people would be thinking that — whoever takes power is going to clean house. That even supporters of the eventual winner will not be safe from being culled once one man emerges as the new king of North Korea. — They would have Kim Il-Sung’s own rise to power to judge by on that.
So, I would expect some of these guys to be heading for China or elsewhere. I’d at least expect diplomats and others abroad to be preparing for a run.
We haven’t heard of any of that so far…..
I think the reason it stays together is precisely because KJI is a god, an icon, a spirit, a religious ruler who need not be present to make decisions or lead the party. People act on the policies of the KWP and do what they believe the dear leader would want them to do. They are so paralyzed by fear that robotic compliance is all they are concerned with. The alternatives are too frightening to consider.
They gather every week into the Revolutionary Ideal ‘churches’ to study the 10 point reunification plan, perform self-criticism, and pay homage to the two Kims. No one would dare miss attending these ‘devotions’.
As the information of the outside world continues to leak in, Juche is ratcheted up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see human sacrifices to the spirit of the eternal leader of Korea [Kim il Sung] coming soon. This would help placate the massive and agonizing ‘han’ that looms over the peninsula. Traditional Korean folk belief is that the han must be addressed and the spirit of the departed placated. While not practiced in the traditional forms (although Shamanism is rampant again in NK), ancestor worship has been synchretized into Juche resulting in a population beholden to the ‘han’ of Kim Il Sung.
Manipulation of this idolatry = governance in NK. But there is a breaking point, and I believe NK may be near or at it now.