FTA Prospects Still Bleak
You know, with all of the anti-American falsehoods some Koreans proliferated before the FTA was signed, I thought the entire effort was more trouble than it was worth even before the beef riots, also inspired by asinine libel, and largely attended by people so stupid as to legitimize the issue of reproductive licensing. Then came the recent parliamentary brawls:
And for a moment, South Korea blessed a troubled world with the gift of laughter. (If you polled Koreans about how the world views them, and there’s a topic about which too many Koreans are obsessed, at least 85% of would list “hub of celadon pottery,” “four distinct seasons,” and “rightful owners of Tokdo” as their top responses. And not in that order.)
Not long ago, it seemed that Korea had negotiated a deal so great — for Korea, that is — that no congressman would dare vote for it.
At long last, some are predicting that the National Assembly will finally pass the FTA at long last. Meaning we’ll soon have an FTA with our vestigial quasi-ally across the Pacific? Not exactly, says U.S. trade official Jay Eizenstat:
“I think FTAs with Panama and Columbia will be ratified by Congress in the second half of this year. As for the Korea-U.S. FTA, however, the chances of ratification are remote because of tricky issues including the auto industry. [Donga Ilbo]
If there’s one point of overwhelming agreement among Americans about the U.S. auto industry, it’s that it should become more competitive, bailout or not (not, if you care to know my preference — bankruptcy and restructuring could do the automakers much good, and a bailout would do our Treasury much harm.)
Foreign competition is far from Detroit’s only problem, of course: Detroit makes shitty cars, and it’s burdened with smothering labor contracts that drive costs too high and inhibit business flexibility. But Detroit can’t be competitive when its offshore competitors, who are unburdened by the EPA and a slew of other acronyms, insist on parasitic trade policies that haven’t made sense since Korea’s economic recovery became an established fact in the 1980’s. Want to be treated as a more equal partner? Being an equal trading partner would be a good first step.
The idea behind the FTA was to strengthen the strained U.S.-Korean relationship at a time when the two governments agreed on little else. Unfortunately, the exact opposite has happened, because Korea’s public discourse is being shaped by the lowest elements of its political culture, elements that have far less regard for civil debate and democratic governance than the achievement of their aims through mendacity and, when convenient, violence. Who thinks that Korean society will have outgrown those flaws in its character before the U.S. and Korea renegotiate the one part of this FTA with the greatest financial impact on the rank and file of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions?
I’m a bit more sanguine about the trade issue. As far as I can find, the US’s main “reasoning” is that Korea taxes higher-displacement cars, and GM makes higher-displacement cars (except for the ones it makes in Korea and sells there with 13% of the market), so this tax is a trade barrier against GM and Detroit. Add some funny accounting, where every Hyundai sold in the US is counted as an import, and we have the stuff that empty campaign promises are made of.
There are probably some other barriers in the market, but I don’t see the Democrats exactly elevating the discussion to that level. In fact a lot of their rhetoric about “Asian country X taking our jobs” (X changes every election) is about as convincing as the beef thing.