Meet the New Boss: Kim Jong Il Reportedly Names Kim Jong Un as Successor
I must register my grave disappointment that Kim Jong Chol, who would have been such fine blogging material and who really seemed like a contender, was not chosen. Instead, we get a new Dear Leader about whom almost nothing is known and who has relatively little exposure to Earth.
You can read more about Kim Jong Un (or Woon, or Woong) here:
* Wikipedia reminds us that he’s the illegitimate son of His Porcine Majesty and former mistress Ko Young Hee. That should make for some tricky explanations and uncomfortable conversations.
* The Atlantic, which called him “a dark horse.”
* DPRK Studies, on his recent career progressions.
* Even Global Security says “Meh?”
Updates: Yonhap, which appears to be the original source of these reports, tells this story almost like it was a coup:
“(Kim) delivered a directive around Jan. 8 that he has named Jong-un as his successor to the leadership of the Workers’ Party,” one of the sources told Yonhap News Agency on condition of anonymity. [….]
Jong-un’s nomination was completely unexpected in the North, even among party leaders, multiple sources said.
“The sudden nomination caught even senior members of the leadership by surprise,” another source said. “The power elite who have learned of Jong-un’s designation are rushing to line up behind the junior Kim and this climate will rapidly spread across North Korean society,” the source said. [Yonhap]
Predictably, Jong Nam was deemed too corrupted by the outside world and Jong Chol too effiminate to be a credible god of war. On the other hand, good looks seem to be optional:
[Kim Jong Un] is the spitting image of his father. Even his body build is similar,” [ex royal sushi chef Kenji] Fujimoto said in the book. [….]
The youngest son is said to be 175 centimeters tall and weigh about 90kg due to a lack of exercise. He reportedly already has high blood pressure and diabetes. Unlike his brothers, no images of him have been captured by foreign media.
The sources said Pyongyang will soon launch a propaganda drive to officially raise Jong-un’s public standing.
North Korea is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on March 8, which Seoul experts forecast will promote young economic elite to lay the groundwork for the post-Kim era. The Institute for National Security Strategy, which is an arm of the National Intelligence Agency, said in a report in late December that economic pragmatism will emerge with the generational shift in the North.
Pity the Daily NK if these reports is accurate. They just came out with a piece saying that eldest son Kim Jong Nam was picked. Jong Nam, most famous for his abortive trip to Tokyo Disneyland, has recently been living the good life in Macau … as we can readily observe. Jong Nam, whom we can safely assume the Chinese have been cultivating, may have had some semi-official role in the regime in recent years and is said to have rushed back to Pyongyang when His Porcine Majesty had his stroke. Putting a morbidly obese heir on the throne of a starving nation would also have made for much exquisite blogging material. Pity.
So what will this mean in practical terms? In the short term, damn little, unless the selection of Jong Un upsets enough people in the power structure to destabilize it. It’s doubtful that any of the three sons would ever have held real power anyway. North Korea’s current system invests all powers not reserved by His Porcine Majesty in a wizened coterie of party hacks and generals, and they are steeped in a competitive groupthink where safety is only found in being no less ruthless than those around them.
In the longer term, however, Jong Un is one more generation removed from Kim Il Sung’s martial claims to legitimacy, even divinity. The cruelty, belligerence, and mendacity of the regime will not change, but a regime without legitimacy under which no one really wants to live can only last so long.
Another update: Via Yonhap, the CIA thinks the North Koreans are in the middle of a shakeup of industrial ministers. So we may have flux within the regime on several layers, which could be a tricky thing for the regime to manage.
Stop the Presses! The Chosun Ilbo says:
A collective leadership headed by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law is in the making in Pyongyang, the Yomiuri Shimbun claimed Wednesday. In a report datelined from the U.S., the Japanese daily said Jang Song-taek (62), who is director of the administrative department of the North Korean Workers Party, is to head this setup, with Kim’s eldest son Jong-nam as the titular head of state. According to the paper, these plans have been made in Kim is incapacitated or dies.
Quoting a senior U.S. intelligence officer, the daily said the collective leadership “would consist of Kim’s family, the NKWP, and the North Korean People’s Army. Its figurehead is Jang, and there is a high likelihood that the North Korean regime will turn out to be in fact a ‘Jang regime.'”
Update 1/15: The Daily NK is sticking to its guns: “[T]here have not been any noticeable signs that Jong Won is taking any instruction to prepare for succession. The word on the streets of North Korea is that Jong Woon has serious hypertension and diabetes.” They are still betting on Jang Song Thaek taking power, which of course isn’t mutually exclusive with the idea of one of the three princes being stood up as a figurehead of sorts.