Missiles, Sanctions, and Surprise Attacks

As North Korea continues to prepare for an April missile test, Great Britain warns North Korea of new sanctions, Japan warns of a “harsh response,” and both Japan and South Korea are drawing up target lists for new sanctions. It would be interesting to see how South Korea joining in sanctions instead of undermining them with change things. It would be just as interesting to see whether the new sanctions will be as tough as the old ones that no one enforced.

But there is some consensus that the North’s launch of such a projectile would itself constitute a violation of Resolution 1718, even if it is a satellite.” He said a “realistic alternative” would be to step up sanctions according to the resolution, which have so far been nominal.

Resolution 1718 obliges all UN member countries to impose an arms embargo, travel ban and financial freeze on North Korea. Of the three kinds of sanctions, arms embargo and financial freeze particularly oblige the member countries to specify “target individuals and organizations” under Article 12 (e) of the resolution. But political considerations including Washington-Pyongyang negotiations over the resumption of the six-party nuclear talks in 2006 meant no country made such a list of targets.

A diplomatic source said it would be possible to put considerable pressure on the North without having to take separate measures because a list of targets including senior North Korean officials would have “an enormous substantial and symbolic impact on the North.” [Chosun Ilbo]

Related: WTF?

North Korea will likely carry out a surprise attack on South Korea, simultaneously with the communist state’s launch of what it calls a communications satellite in early April, South Korea’s defense ministry warned Wednesday.

The latest warning followed Pyongyang’s threat last week to push ahead with its planned satellite launch in the sea off the Korean Peninsula between April 4-8.

“There is a good possibility North Korea may make a surprise but limited attack on some areas along the inter-Korean border, with global attention mounting on its planned missile launch,” the ministry said in a report presented to a special parliamentary committee on inter-Korean relations. [Yonhap]