One Man’s “Bargaining Chip” Is Another Man’s Hostage

Update: Uh oh:

Two American journalists detained at North Korea’s border with China two weeks ago will be indicted and tried, “their suspected hostile acts” already confirmed, Pyongyang’s state-run news agency said Tuesday.

The Korean Central News Agency report did not say when a trial might take place, but said preparations to indict the Americans were under way as the investigation continues.

“The illegal entry of U.S. reporters into the DPRK and their suspected hostile acts have been confirmed by evidence and their statements,” the report said, referring to the country by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. [AP, Jean H. Lee]

I know this is going to seem inexplicable to most of you, but this smarter, more humble diplomacy of outreached hands doesn’t seem to have unclenched any fists. Perhaps it’s time to question some assumptions about the source of our differences. Thanks to a reader for forwarding, end update.]

We still don’t know how Laura Ling and Euna Lee ended up in North Korea. Maybe the North Koreans grabbed them from Chinese soil, as they did to Kim Dong Shik before they murdered him, or as they frequently do to their own escaped subjects. Maybe Ling and Lee wandered onto North Korean soil through inadvertence or just plan poor judgment. Or maybe they were in the riverbed itself:

About 6:30 a.m. on March 17, Laura Ling and Euna Lee took a video camera and ventured onto the ice to get some footage for San Francisco-based Current TV. According to some accounts, they had nearly reached the opposite side when the North Korean border guards emerged and took them into custody. [L.A. Times, Barbara Demick]

Whatever the case may be, Ling and Lee certainly weren’t the first reporters to have approached the border more closely than prudence would suggest. Demick relates her own previous interactions with border guards in that same sector:

Did we have drinking water? Cookies? Cigarettes? What nice sunglasses I was wearing. How much did they cost? Would I give them away? How about my watch? Or even a watch battery.

We eyed somewhat anxiously the Kalashnikov assault rifles they had slung over their shoulders. A young South Korean women who was one of my traveling companions asked if they were real.

“Of course, it’s real. You don’t think we would carry toy guns,” answered one of the North Koreans. Flirtatiously, he took it off his shoulder and extended the weapon for the young woman to hold.

After a few minutes of banter, we gave back the gun, along with a bottle of beer and a case of Choco Pies, a South Korean junk food that the Northerners accepted with delight. We all waved cheerful goodbyes, declining their invitation to visit the other side.

The reports of Ling and Lee’s capture are still hopelessly inconsistent, but for some reason, the North Koreans decided to take prisoners this time.

Another theory that had occurred to me is that Ling and Lee were lured to or across the border by someone acting on the North Korean regime’s instructions. This is groundless speculation, of course. I’ve read no published report to suggest that it’s the case, but it’s also plausible, because it’s consistent with North Korea’s past practices, motives, and immediate interests. There could never be a better time to hold two Americans hostage than just before a planned missile launch, when the American government is threatening punitive sanctions. North Korea’s contempt for journalists who refuse to toe its party line is well known, and the North Koreans may very well hold a grudge against Lisa Ling, Laura’s sister. And after all, if North Korea is willing to go all the way to Japan and even Europe for hostages, why not the Tumen River?

For North Korea, having two American hostages now serves many purposes: deterring U.S. sanctions, deterring the press from covering the misery of its subjects, extorting money and other concessions, and eventually, gaining a favorable photo op for the regime and a favored apologist when it eventually decides to release Laura Ling and Euna Lee. Human nature being what it is, the odds are at least fair that one of these women will also compliment the regime for not standing both of them in front of a firing squad. Human nature is messed up.

No matter what charges are made against the journalists, North Korea will probably use them — and the timing of their release — as leverage in negotiations with the United States and other countries over aid, nuclear weapons and, most urgently, the planned test launch in early April of a long-range missile, several analysts said. A U.S. official Wednesday confirmed reports that North Korea had moved the missile onto the launch pad.

“They do become bargaining chips,” said Andrei Lankov, a professor of North Korean studies at Kookmin University in Seoul. The two journalists interviewed Lankov shortly before they traveled to the North Korean border.

“North Korea will send them home, but it will not happen quickly,” Lankov said. “The North Koreans want to show the world that illegally crossing their border will not be tolerated and they want to squeeze political and financial concessions from the United States.” [Washington Post, Blaine Harden]

In other words, Ling and Lee are being held because of benefits North Korea expects to extract in exchange for treating them leniently (not killing them, for example) or releasing them. After all, in what sense do two rather naive American reporters hanging around a dilapidated border region between two allied dictatorships represent a true security threat to anyone but themselves?

They have a word for this, you know.

President Bush announced the removal of North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on June 26, 2008. Discuss among yourselves.