Another Nuclear Test in the Works?

I’m hearing rumors that North Korea has all the trappings set for another nuclear test. All that is missing is an order from Kim Jong Il to set it off. Presumably, the order will come if North Korea believes it has few other bargaining options left on the table. Talk has it that whenever and if that will ever be, the North does have the capability to quickly conduct a test on short notice.

What can we expect will happen this time around if it does come to that? Remember, with the exception of 1998 when it could be said North Korea’s missile launch came close to succeeding (or perhaps it would be better to say that its 1998 test was the closest it has come to succeeding), the DPRK has drastically failed in all subsequent attempts. What happened in 1998 that has not happened since?

Could be a number of things, I have been told. A likely possibility is that the material they have been using to construct their weapons since 1998 are of poorer quality and have not been properly maintained – it would be safe to assume they are building their missiles from old Russian blueprints which would be another hindrance. Secondly, talk has it that North Korea is not receiving any assistance from China these days, something they may have received in the past. A combination of these factors could be the reason why (thankfully) we have not seen a successful nuclear test by North Korea.

Personally, I tend to agree with the theory that North Korea simply does not yet have the knowledge to successfully pull a nuclear test off. I’m not a rocket scientist, but I know there are blog readers who do know significantly more than I do on the topic and could perhaps expand. My suspicion is the payload size has a lot to do with North Korea’s current limitations. Numbers that have been floating around are payload sizes of 20-30 kilograms which are not significant amounts when talking about nuclear weapons. It is possible that North Korean scientists have not yet figured out how to successfully work with greater sizes – which if that is the case, is a huge relief.

But regardless of whether North Korea can successfully pull off another test, we cannot rule out the possibility that it will try again anyway. And given the climate in the region today, one has to wonder if another DPRK nuclear test would give Japan reason to amend its constitution (again) so it too, can go nuclear – something the country could do overnight. (I say “again” because Japan had to amend its constitution at the start of the Iraq war as the island country deployed its army to the region, although under the label of “peace keepers,” if I recall correctly.)

I am sure that if another North Korean nuclear test does take place, serious discussion will arise within Japan about the consideration of going nuclear in the name of self-defense. And if Japan goes nuclear, can South Korea be far behind?