And Now, the Fallout
Kim Jong Il has followed yesterday’s nuke test by firing two more short-range missiles, as a rudderless world tries to decide how to respond. When you consider each of these developments, ask yourself whether Kim Jong Il could reasonably have anticipated that it would happen. So far, everything I see happening fits within the range of Kim Jong Il’s calculation of “acceptable consequences.”
- FOR ONE THING, KIM JONG IL IS PROBABLY BETTING that John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi don’t possess the spine to schedule votes on those sanctions bills introduced by Senator Brownback and Representative Ros-Lehtinen after North Korea’s April missile test. Here’s the text of the House bill and the Senate bill, which are both full of sound ideas that would bring real pain to Kim Jong Il. Remember that when you read … the next item.
- OBAMA IS “TESTED;” Bush, on the other hand, faced “questions” and “a political liability.” It all depends on your perspective. The worst part of the New York Times’s latest, however, is the worn falsehood that Obama has few options. Thankfully, Obama’s people told the Times that “they were determined to organize a significantly stronger response than the Bush administration had managed after the North’s first nuclear test, in October 2006.” OK, then, here’s a whole menu of options. Use them. I won’t sue. They also recognize the real danger: “The threat is not that they will shoot off a nuclear weapon; it’s that they will sell nuclear material.” I’m glad there are brighter people in the White House than at the New York Times.
- MORE COMMENTS FROM OBAMA: The new President called the nuclear and missile tests “a grave threat to the peace and security of the world” and “a blatant violation of international law” that “endanger the people of Northeast Asia,” contradict North Korea’s “own prior commitments,” “have flown in the face of U.N. resolutions,” and “invit[e] stronger international pressure.” We’ll see.
- EVEN THE FRENCH are calling for new sanctions. But as we’ve learned, China and Russia can and will subvert multilateral sanctions, which focus on the tougher target of trade. Unilateral sanctions against North Korea’s fragile finances have been far more effective.
- IN SOUTH KOREA, CALLS TO GO NUCLEAR: Well, it’s not as if that the South might provoke North Korea to do something they’ve already done. And South Korea, which has several commercial nuclear reactors, has already been sending below-the-radar signals that it’s interested in pursuing the uranium fuel cycle to its conclusion.
- AS IT DID IN 2006, Japan is debating whether to acquire first-strike preemptive defense capabilities. That might require a constitutional amendment. Japan is also prepared to levy new economic sanctions, but it’s not clear what other sanctions Japan hasn’t already imposed. Commerce, shipping, luxury items, and remittances are already greatly restricted, and it has pretty much shut down Chongryon, a/k/a Chosen Soren.
- ALWAYS WORTH READING: Bruce Klingner’s analysis.
On the domestic political front, that is interesting. You’d be in the ballpark if you guessed such a stronger response would look something like —- what Bush did for most of his 8 years in office where it concerned NK…
…which would mean, on the domestic political front, Obama would be signing on to yet another Bush policy that was attacked by Obama’s side of the political spectrum. The left and Dem criticism of Bush’s “hardline” policy was nowhere close to as strong as their fierce attacks on Bush’s anti-terrorism and national security policies, but they did criticize him for “undoing” the “progress” Clinton had made and/or kept telling him to cave into North Korea’s demands for 1-on-1 meetings “before it’s too late.”
And to his shame, Bush did cave.
But — your last item above sounded good to me today:
I have no faith in the Obama administration doing anything significant in response for a number of reasons — perhaps the primary one being that even a president like Bush eventually caved…….
But — you know —- Japan could take the lead here and for good reasons:
It has sat back quietly, seemingly without choice, as the US kicked its interests in the shins as Bush had Hill craft a 2nd Agreed Framework. And Japan probably understands that if it can’t even trust a “cowboy” running foreign policy who doesn’t mind inviting criticism by calling Iraq, Iran, and NK an “Axis of Evil” — then they can’t really trust any US administration when it comes to what Japan desires most concerning Pyongyang.
So — it might be a good idea for Japan to amend their constitution to allow for the fielding of a first strike capability.
If they pass the amendment and work on such a capability, it will add to their deterrent in an effort to match North Korea’s growing demonstration of an enhanced nuclear and missile threat to Japan.
But, even if it doesn’t pass —- just making such a first-strike capability a major, prolonged, and heated discussion — will put pressure on all the players involved……Meaning….this might be one of the few ways effective pressure can be placed on China to do something.
It’s clear the US does not have the guts (or even strong desire) to twist China’s arm to join in doing something effective to pressure NK. The US is too concerned with economic aspects of its relationship with China and doesn’t want to feud with them —- especially while we’re begging them to buy our national debt.
— But Japan could alter the equations if it stirred the pot by moving to make “militaristic” changes to its constitution.
Now that the US has come up with the bright idea that ignoring the North whenever possible is the best policy —– Japan probably needs to start thinking about how it can force the US and others to care more about it….
In addition to Constitution amendments, I’ve been hearing speculation that all this will lead Japan to seriously pressure the U.S. to sell it some military equipment/weapons: F-22s, UAV drones (Global Hawk has been mentioned) and stuff like that. Of course, no one I’ve spoken to thinks the U.S. will entertain some of those heavy requests but it has been suggested that Japan might try anyway.
The nutshell version of my earlier comment:
More than a handful of people have been saying for some time that the US needs to twist China’s arm to get them to use the leverage they have on Pyongyang.
Now I think it’s time Japan does the twisting — of Washington’s, Beijing’s, and Seoul’s arms.
Even in 2009 it’s still fantastically expensive to design and build a nuclear weapon from scratch yet one of the poorest countries on the planet has done it. If the Norks can do it why not Somalia or Gabon?
Iran hasn’t done it yet and they have vast oil wealth. Pakistan quickly did it but only with sustained Chinese help. In my view the Norks got sustained help from either China or Russia to get to the point of successful detonation of a bomb. The history of nuclear weapon design is full of expensive wrong turns yet here we have the Norks pretty successful fairly quickly. Who is paying for this and what do they get in return?
While the Norks pour billions into bomb designs they pour billions into ICBM designs and tests. Who is paying that bill? I can’t believe they squeeze enough money from drug running, crime and terror to fund all of this.
Yet I have never heard US officials publicly discuss how the Norks have funded their program yet governments are all about following the money. If a permanent member of the UN is the godfather of the Nork bomb, Obama and Bush before him must have known and realized that almost any 6 party talk or Security Council resolution was a charade.