Korean War 2, Day 5: Gates Calls for a ‘Plan B,’ The Next Missile Test, and More Calls for Military Action
GATES LOOKS FOR A “PLAN B:”
Mr. Gates raised “the notion that we should think about this as we are pursuing the six-party talks,” said a senior defense official who asked for anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue. “We ought to think about what more we need to do should they not prove successful. [N.Y. Times, Elisabeth Bumiller]
Better late than never, and he’s welcome to order from this menu.
MISSILE TEST UPDATE: Here’s the latest from the South Korean intelligence leak ticker:
The source, asking not to be identified, said an object that appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was recently spotted on a cargo train at an artillery research center near Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.
“We believe that the object is certainly an ICBM,” said the official, adding that its size is somewhat similar to the one the North fired into the Pacific on April 5. North Korea is believed to have started moving the object to a missile launch pad in Musudan-ri on the country’s east coast, according to the official.
“The missile may be a modified version of a Taepodong-2 missile, which can travel over 4,000 km,” the official said. A Taepodong-2 missile is theoretically capable of reaching the western U.S. “It usually takes about two months to set up a launch pad, but the process could be done in as little as two weeks, which means the North could launch a long-range missile as early as mid-June,” the source said. [Korea Times]
NORTH KOREA THREATENS NUCLEAR WAR AGAIN:
An official North Korean newspaper on Thursday said a “tense touch-and-go situation is being created” on the Korean Peninsula by the South Korean government’s decision to join the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led anti-proliferation regime, and UN discussions of possible sanctions against the North.
“A minor accidental clash could lead to a nuclear war,” the paper warned in a commentary titled “Prelude to a War of Northward Invasion.” It defends North Korea’s nuclear development, saying, “There is no choice but to further intensify deterrence for self defense to prevent warmongers from attempting to provoke new wars.” [Chosun Ilbo]
President Bush removed North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on October 10, 2008 as a reward for promising to verifiably dismantle its nuclear weapons programs. Discuss among yourselves.
MORE U.S. CALLS FOR MILITARY STRIKES: Must be those damn neocons again!
This time, however, most who are urging the military action option are not Republicans or neo-conservatives but Democrats who have championed dialogue with Pyongyang. While conservative hardliners, including former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, focus on stopping the six-party talks and strengthening sanctions on North Korea, the doves want a broader spectrum of responses ranging from direct talks to military action.
Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, the architect of the “Perry Process,” a comprehensive approach to the North Korean nuclear program, told a forum in Washington Thursday that if non-military options do not stem the North’s escalation of tension, the United States must consider others, namely military options. [….]
In an interview with The Dong-A Ilbo last month …, Philip D. Zelikow, who designed the comprehensive and bold approach to the North under the Bush administration, also proposed a preemptive U.S. strike on North Korean missiles placed on launch pads. [….]
Michael O`Hanlon, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institute, told a forum Wednesday that if the North begins to sell nuclear materials to terrorist groups or other countries, the Obama administration will seriously consider military sanctions. [Dong-A Ilbo]
This is the height of foolishness. U.N. santions may have been undermined by China, but the Treasury Department’s targeting of the North Korean regime’s finances worked. We’ve never applied it in a sustained and comprehensive way, and we’ve barely done anything to cultivate and enable a North Korean resistance network. A war in Korea would play to Kim Jong Il’s last remaining strength and get millions of people killed. Knowing that as we do, all of this is probably just talk. All the same, we need to begin the process of strangling the regime and planning for North Korea’s reconstruction now.
MYTHS ARE PAINFUL THINGS TO PART WITH:
At the time of the first [nuclear] test, the common liberal lament was that Kim Jong Il was belligerent only because President Bush had eschewed diplomacy in favor of tough rhetoric, like naming Pyongyang to the “axis of evil.” [Wall Street Journal]
And now they want to start a war. The Journal’s editorial, by the way, is a very good summary of the second-term Bush policy toward North Korea, and how that policy failed. And the architect of that policy? Don’t worry. President Obama found a safe place for him where he can’t possibly do any harm. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.