Korean War 2, Day 4: Everyone, Take a Deep Breath

I’m the last one to downplay the danger that North Korea really represents.  I’ve said all along that there is no purely diplomatic solution to that danger, and I’ve spent the last five years arguing for a combination of economic strangulation, political subversion, and strong conventional deterrence with the specific purpose of overthrowing Kim Jong Il.  By showing you Kim Jong Il’s death camps and the vast fields of graves that surround North Korea’s cities, I hope I’ve helped to place the risk of subverting Kim’s regime in the context of the human cost of the status quo.  That having been said, can we please try to calm down and not do anything stupid that will only get a lot of people killed needlessly?

Let’s begin at far-left Air America, where a member of the “peace is patriotic” crowd manages to lose his grip on both concepts as he rants, “Bush Is Gone. Let’s Bomb North Korea.”

I’m not a saber-rattler, a bar stool diplomat and have never ejaculated “Nuke ’em!” But would somebody please drop a MOAB or Bunker Buster on Pyongyang or Tehran? No U.S. troops involved, no invasion, no regime change . . . just a big ol’ bomb (or series of such) to wipe out missile delivery systems in toto.  Now hear me out.  [“Lionel” at Air America]

You can, if you follow the audio link, but those minutes of your life will be gone forever, and you’ll rue that on your death bed.  Every sentence Lionel speaks is a new illustration of the old maxim about opening one’s mouth and removing all doubt.  And did it only become acceptable for some on the left to become hawkish and act as if they have an stake in our national security when one of their own was inaugurated?  Note that Lionel’s “argument” is premised on the idea that just bombing North Korea would quick, easy, and painless.  Which brings us to the soothing voice of Town Hall, which gives us some idea of how North Korea might respond:

The attack might well begin with artillery and missiles capable of hitting South Korea’s capital with little or no warning. North Korea’s vast cadre of commandos could try to infiltrate and cause chaos while the South tried to respond.  [Town Hall]

Town Hall reports this as though we’re a hair trigger away from it, but in what alternative universe is Kim Jong Il likely to initiate something like that unless he sees his that his own extinction is imminent and inevitable?  You can dismiss all of this as the views of a few cranks, but recently, such supposed heavyweights as Lawrence Eagleburger, William Perry, Newt Gingrich, and Ashton Carter have all advocated direct military attacks against North Korea in circumstances other than those posing an imminent threat to the United States.  I don’t remember hearing objections from any of these people when Chris Hill, bearing the warrant of George W. Bush and Condi Rice, was throwing away all of our diplomatic and financial leverage over the North Koreans, and I still don’t hear them demanding the reimposition of highly effective financial sanctions, helping a political underground establish itself inside North Korea, or putting the screws to the Chinese.
Removing Kim Jong Il from power would be a hazardous thing to choreograph, but so would the failure to remove him.  We have no military option for doing this ourselves, and Kim Jong Il knows it.  Only the North Koreans themselves can rid the world of Kim Jong Il without destroying the rest of Korea.  We can and should give North Korean dissidents our encouragement and support in doing this, but if the ruling clique ever concludes that its extinction is imminent and inevitable, it will unleash Götterdämmerung.  Even as we subvert Kim Jong Il’s oligarchy, we must always leave him with a sense that there is another way — whether by holding out, escaping to a comfortable exile, or peacefully yielding to a very real negotiated transformation of North Korea.