What leverage does Russia have?

Interesting news and analysis focusing on Russia within the past 24 hours.

In the past, the Kremlin has relied on China to make the leading decision on how to react to North Korean aggression since the latter appears to have more influence on the DPRK when dealing with the Kim regime. However, in light of the most recent North Korean nuclear test, it seems we are seeing a more aggressive Russia than before, with some suggesting the country is looking to take a more active role in the situation this time around. From the previously linked Washington Post article:

After an initial, mild expression of “concern” by the Russian foreign minister, the government issued a high-level statement denouncing the underground blast as a “direct violation” of U.N. resolutions.

“Initiators of decisions on nuclear tests bear personal responsibility for them to the world community,” said Natalya Timakova, chief spokeswoman for President Dmitry Medvedev, adding that the test “deals a blow to international efforts to strengthen the global regime of nuclear nonproliferation.”

[…]

Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council to condemn the test and pledged to support a strong new resolution against North Korea. Russia holds the rotating presidency of the council this month.

But does this necessarily mean Russia has any leverage in the situation? This tougher Russia may not be able to do much if you believe China holds the key to success, and some don’t even see a more aggressive Russia at all, but rather, a helpless one.

Russia’s influence may just be limited to PR at the moment. It can help produce a more unified voice within the UN and ostracize North Korea, a country it once had friendly relations with. It can also join other nations in putting pressure on China to use its influence and take the lead, assuming China doesn’t feel helpless as well.

Meanwhile, at the grassroots level in Russia, university students and teachers in Vladivostok held demonstrations the other day protesting North Korea’s nuclear test. (They demonstrated under the interesting slogan of “Peace in the Sea of Japan!”) One activist in Vladivostok told a reporter that a nuclear disaster in North Korea would cause Russia’s Primorsky Krai region to suffer, as it is only 150 kilometers away from North Korea.

A resolution signed by the demonstrators urging Pyongyang to end its nuclear tests was sent to the North Korean Consulate in Nakhodka, but one of the protesting students told RFE/RL’s Russian Service that she does not expect the Kim regime to seriously pay attention to their demonstration.

True, the DPRK regime may not bat an eye at a resolution signed by anyone, much less Russian university students and teachers, but I think Russia is very aware of what a nuclear disaster in North Korea would mean for the country.

And I’m assuming China knows as well.