Anticipating Kim Jong Il’s Next Move

The North Koreans seem to be itching for a fight with Lee Myung Bak, but they’re afraid he might actually tell his military to shoot back.  He knows that if that happens, he risks a national humiliation at a delicate moment.  He might, just might, be engineering a tricky sucession as we speak.  Some are even speculating that a bloody purge may be on the horizon.  What does a tyrant have to do to raise the bar from a nuclear test without jeopardizing his own survival?

My bet is that the next North Korean provocation will be on home turf — Kaesong or Kumgang.  My guess is His Withering Majesty either takes more hostages or nationalizes the facilities and equipment there.

Who thinks I need new tags for “groundless speculation,” and “ideas I shouldn’t put in peoples’ heads?”

A more interesting question in my mind is this — what effect will a newly credible threat of sanctions have on Kim Jong Il’s expected missile tests, and on the results of Laura Ling’s and Euna Lee’s “trials?”  The next few days are going to be interesting.