Iran on the Brink
It has started:
Witnesses said police fired tear gas and water cannons at thousands of protesters who rallied in Tehran Saturday in open defiance of Iran‘s clerical government, sharply escalating the most serious internal conflict since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Eyewitnesses described fierce clashes near Revolution Square in central Tehran after some 3,000 protesters chanted “Death to the dictator!” and “Death to dictatorship!” Police responded with tear gas and water cannons, the witnesses said.
English-language state TV said a blast at the Tehran shrine of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had killed one persona and wounded two but the report could not be independently confirmed due to government restrictions on independent reporting.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned opposition leaders on Friday to end street protests or be held responsible for any “bloodshed and chaos” to come.
Eyewitnesses contacted by The Associated Press said thousands of police and plainclothes militia members filled the streets Saturday to prevent rallies. Fire trucks took up positions in Revolution Square and riot police surrounded Tehran University, the site of recent clashes between protesters and security forces, one witness said. [AP]
If you believe that prayer can interrupt evil plans, this would be the time. Something terrible is starting to look imminent, and I’m not sure that mere expressions of concern will do much to prevent it.
Quiet threats to meet violence by arming the opposition might. There are limits to what non-violence can do in the face of brutality, but an armed population is a very difficult thing to subjugate.
The bastards…
Next they’ll be killing people!!
…On the serious side — does anybody know anything about possible factions within the Iranian military?
I’m completely in the dark when it comes to Iran. I can remember hearing that the people were much more pro-US/Western and anti-Tehranian regime than you might think, but I have no clue how deep and wide the opposition might be.
I would wildly guess they would need support from factions in the military – who either joins in or refuses to leave the barracks – most likely having to join in with the opposition — before regime change could be possible.
I imagine the collapse of the Soviet Union was of the “stay in the barracks” variety. I can remember when the die-hards sent tanks and troops into Moscow and had a big standoff with the people but ultimately would not carry out orders like the Chinese troops did in Tiananmen Square.
Amir Taheri (opinion-ed, NY Post) believes so…
“To start with, all prominent figures of the “loyal opposition” boycotted the event [Khomeinei’s speech] at the last minute. Of the three defeated candidates, only retired Gen. Mohsen Rezai Mir-Qaed put in an appearance. Nearly half the members of the Islamic Majlis, Iran’s ersatz parliament, were absent — along with most members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of 92 mullahs who are supposed to supervise the work of the “Supreme Guide.” Some senior members of the military-security establishment were also absent, indicating that the split affects even the so-called “deep state.”
If the Islamic-republic were to somehow topple, it would subtract MAJOR clients for NK’s arms sales. Syria, Libya and others (non-state entities like Hezbollah) are subsidiaries of Iran’s militaristic ambitions and would further push NK into a corner.
Iran is to the Middle East as NK is to E.Asia. Both would dramatically alter affairs in their respective geographical areas…
The power of Twitter.