Some Good Reads

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1. I’m glad to see people’s perceptions changing. We could settle 1M refugees for much less than the cost of a war.

   If China’s concerns are indeed economic, I’ve long felt we should offer to share the burden of refugee resettlement. If their concerns are otherwise, we’ll at least find out.

2. I’ve often heard the argument from China that if North Korea collapses then a flood of refugees would go across the Tumen and Yalu rivers. However it doesn’t make sense to me because it seems South Korea would be the preferred destination if the collapse includes the 38th parallel being liberated (or abandoned) as well. I also believe a significant number of North Koreans would still stick it out in North Korea if a competent regime change took place there or if South Korea’s government simply took over both the national and provincial levels.
   China will never welcome any amount of North Korean refugees for economic reasons, so the burden would fall on South Korea to ensure that a collapse is expedited quickly and stability restored in a feasible manner. Easier said than done, but rapid reunification should remain the ultimate goal so that North Koreans don’t feel the need to flee their land.

3. I tried to post this under the article about Laura Ling and Euna Lee but it’s not working.
   I need a little help with Korean translation and hope somebody at One Free Korea can help.

   Yonhap News Agency updated their story with translations of KCNA’s Korean report. Here are 2 paragraphs that contain information not previously reported:

   The Americans consulted with senior producers of their television station in January for the “anti-DPRK smear campaign over its human rights issue” and received U$$9,950 for the project, the KCNA report said. In their Chinese visa application forms, they reported themselves as computer specialists entering China for travel, it said.

   With help from a guard introduced by Chun Ki-won, a South Korean pastor who helps defectors, the reporters collected “vicious stories” about North Korea at the Chinese border region and covertly crossed the Tumen River into the North at dawn on March 17, the report claimed. They were arrested on the spot, it said.

   I have gone to KCNA’s Korean page and attempted my own translation using “Google Translate”. I think I might have found something else concerning the local guide who led Current TV’s crew (Mitch Koss, Laura Ling, and Euna Lee) across the Tumen River:

   http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-k.htm

   3월 17일 6시 미취 코스와 로라 링, 리승은은 천기원이 소개하여준 김성철의 안내에 따라 중국 도문시 월정진으로부터 얼어붙은 두만강을 건너 우리 측 대안에 올라선 후 록화촬영기로 주변을 촬영하면서 《우리는 방금 허가없이 북조선경내에 들어왔습니다.》라는 해설을 록음하고 침입기념으로 땅바닥에서 돌맹이를 하나 주어넣기까지 하였다.

   “On March 17 at 6:00 Mitch Koss, Laura Ling, and Euna Lee … …. under the guidance of Kim Sung-chul…”

   Can somebody who can read Korean please help me with this paragraph because I believe it might be mentioning the name of the ethnic Korean-Chinese guide who was introduced by Chun Ki-won. Is the name of the guide “Kim Sung-chul”? If so, it would be the first time this person’s name has appeared in print!

4. “None of this will be easy, but the payoff for success would be great. The task of resettling North Korea’s long-suffering refugees is far less daunting than the task of changing the regime’s behavior. I know from personal experience that many South Koreans feel that the U.S. is indifferent to the plight of North Koreans and they are moved when the U.S. shows genuine concern. Here is a chance to do just that.”

   I hope Wolfowitz is right. I and many members of our organization are working hard to raise awareness among USFK personnel on the plight of NK defectors. I think its taking root.

   In the end, I think Pyongyang will fall not to bombs and missiles, but to plastic leaflets launched by helium balloons.

5. If we can seriously discuss resettling inmates in Gitmo to the mainland US because we can’t send them back to their home country because they might be tortured by the government there, we damn sure can take in many more North Korean refugees…

6. I can’t help thinking that the US consulate in Shenyang would be attacked by an army of 10,000 asylum seekers the day after America’s Congress passes a bill saying North Korean refugees can resettle to communities in California, Texas, and Wisconsin.
   Plus one can’t help thinking that China and North Korea would take more drastic measures to prevent such waves of people from reaching China’s shore. China might invest in building the Great Wall of Barbwire on its border, but what would Pyongyang do? If North Korea doesn’t think twice about shooting a South Korean housewife who takes a walk on the beach, then a senseless slaughter of refugees is not hard to imagine.

7. Spelunker, my Korean is middling, but your interpretation appears to be correct.

8. China’s primary concern regarding a North Korean collapse is not a flood of refugees but the prospect of a US-allied South Korean military, or worse, USFK itself, stationed along the border. Educated Chinese really think the US is out to get them. I’ve read conspiracy theories accusing the CIA of funding the Dalai Lama and Tibetan activists to destabilize China and possibly invade through Tibet. An invasion of North Korea to establish a buffer zone is discussed favorably in internet forums and even mentioned by Chinese academics.

9. Let’s be honest: some of us are out to get them. Just as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan helped bring down the USSR, a Chinese invasion of NK could trigger the rise of a nationalist resistance movement in North Korea, which would galvanize pan-Korean nationalism against China and ultimately lead to sudden political change in China. That’s especially likely if a lot of cheap weapons start “finding” their way into the hands of the North Koreans.

   Totalitarian regimes tend to weather military defeats and entanglements poorly because they build illusions of invincibility and contain, rather than ventilate, popular discontent. Just look at Iran.

10. China will never allow its buffer state to collapse.

11. I’ve worked with some CIA types; China need not worry.

12. As of now, the UN Command is the highest military HQs enforcing the terms of the Armistice with the DPRK. China is not a constituent member of the UNC and in fact was a belligerent in the Korean war which has never formally ended. Therefore, on paper, the Chinese are still [potential] belligerents on the side of the DPRK and may not respect UN mandates regarding the stabilizing of a collapsed DPRK.

    This leaves a scenario in which the PRC Army invades NK to ostensibly stabilize the fragile situation in spite of the UNC or as a Johnny-come-lately partner with the UNC. If mission #1 is recover the nukes and prevent them from falling into the hands of terrorists, I really don’t see the PRC all that exercised about that. Does the PRC really have any fear of a terrorist attack with nukes? No. But the US and the UK do, so it might be in the interest of the PRC to obfuscate the UNC stability mission to allow time for nuclear technology or weaponry to get out of NK and into the hands of the ‘wrong’ people.

    While the PRC does not want a united, democratic, capitalist Korea on its border, aside from direct military action, they may not be able to prevent it. Which brings us back to 1953: the PRC were belligerents in the Korean War on the side of the DPRK and nothing has formally changed since. Some type of conflict with Korea may be inevitable – and there is now no USSR, no Maoist Revolution underway, a nascent capitalist market emerging in China, and a vastly more powerful ROK to contend with. Add to that the massive investment the PRC has in the US economy, and a conflict with US-backed ROK as the main effort in a UN stabilization mission doesn’t seem so savory.

    This winter could be the breaking point for the DPRK. Starvations on a Biblical scale could produce the critical mass for the inevitable revolt against the Juche regime.

13. I’m confident the CIA has updated foolproof maps of Pyongyang showing the exact Google Earthed GPS coordinated Twitter confirmed location of China’s embassy!

14. I, too, am glad that people’s perceptions are changing and agree with xyzzy that we could settle 1M refugees for much less than the cost of a war – furthermore, the end result could be the same.