Upping the Ante

It is indeed good news to hear of the safe return of Laura Ling and Euna Lee after months of imprisonment in North Korea, but does this really signal an improvement in U.S.-DPRK relations? North Korea did, after all, use these journalists to get what it wanted (Bill Clinton in North Korea), and the U.S. did honor the regime’s request, although under the label of a “private” mission.

While the rescue is being hailed as a “success,” it’s too early to call this a victory or a thawing in bilateral relations. The real test will come the next time the U.S. finds itself at odds with North Korea. Only then, can we comment with certainty whether or not relations between the two countries have really improved and if this incident was the starting point for real change. For example, can we expect to see North Korea back at the negotiating table in relation to its nuclear weapons program? I doubt it, although here are a few possible scenarios that may unfold.

Let’s make no mistake about what happened this time around: Kim Jong Il used the two journalists to get what he wanted. By getting Bill Clinton to North Korea, Kim secured his legacy in the eyes of the North Korean people. As one American newspaper editorial said (sorry I can’t remember which one it was, I thought I bookmarked it but it turns out I didn’t), Clinton’s visit added to Kim Jong Il’s legacy in the eyes of North Koreans, maybe even helping him surpass that of his father’s.

So was it worth aiding in a little pro-KJI propaganda for the safe return of these two reporters? (I’m not sure if it’d be even possible to do something like this quietly.) And what will happen next time North Korea detains two of our citizens? As one OpEd I read said, in the past we’d just send off someone like Bill Richardson to negotiate their release. This time, however, we gave North Korea a former U.S. President and lots of media attention. Next time will they up the ante and ask for more?