Open Radio: China Prepares N. Korea Occupation Force

Open Radio, one of the broadcasting services that edits the reports of North Koreans and broadcasts them back into their homeland, claims that the force is being composed from ethnic Koreans in China:

According to the source, Shenyang and Jangchoon districts have special force with a size of a brigade. There is also a force composed only of Korean-Chinese, while the size of this force has not been confirmed. These forces were created in order to respond to any sudden eruption on the Korean peninsula, and have been receiving trainings.

According to a South Korean security expert, brigades #190 with 3,000 soldiers near Shenyang, and it is likely to be dispatched in case of any disruption in North Korea. In fact, brigade #190 has done a training in inner Mongolia. (Note 1)

Additionally, the security expert said the role of special force composed of Korean-Chinese will conduct pacification work to stabilize the North Koreans within North Korea. In Jangchoon district, there is a brigade of armed police #117, and this brigade will work for internal security and control refugees. [Open Radio]

Before we declare the birth of the Chosen Autonomous Zone, I’d just direct your attention to this RAND Corporation study that estimated that South Korea would need to send in 440,000 troops to restore order in North Korea after regime collapse. That number might adjust up or down substantially, depending on the degree to which North Koreans accept or reject an occupying force. A few brigades — a brigade is typically about 3,000 troops — won’t be enough to do more than occupy a few strategic cities on or near the border — Sinuiju, Hoeryong, and the ports of Unggi and Rajin.

Even so, I can see the camel’s nose entering the tent here. This is the sort of thing America should be moving to preempt with careful statements of opposition, good diplomacy, and above all, by accelerating our efforts to form an underground network of like-minded North Koreans who don’t want the division of their country perpetuated. It should be our clear policy that post-Kim Jong Il should be reintegrated with South Korea under a democratic system, and if putting China at ease requires us to say that we have no ambitions to occupy the North, so be it. And with Kim Jong Il raising the ante against us, I assure you that this sort of statement will do no harm to the strength of our bargaining position with North Korea.

I see only two ways to deter China from occupying the North. One is a threat of war with America or South Korea, which just isn’t worth risking. The second is the distinct possibility that North Koreans will start ambushing their convoys with Claymore mines and RPG-2’s. That’s a risk that America can accept, but which would pose prohibitive risks for China’s stability. Information flows too freely in China today for it to stifle dissent against an unpopular foreign war. The formation of such a network would be mostly spontaneous if North Koreans could communicate freely with each other, and with the rest of the world. Could this be done? Yes, if we’re willing to flood North Korea with small, hand-held satellite phones with cameras, a text feature to allow the user to read news reports, and international dialing capability.