Defector Describes Decline in N. Korean Military Morale
As if to affirm on cue what I’d written here, former North Korean battalion commander Kim Joo-Il explains why North Korea’s official military strength figures aren’t a very good indicator of its actual military strength:
“Officially the North Korea armed forces number 1.2 million – these are the official numbers,” Mr Kim said. “But they do not include the secret military service, so I do not know the exact figure of military personnel.
“About 100,000 people are conscripted annually and they serve for 10 years,” he added.
But Mr Kim says that the severe famine of the 1990s, in which huge numbers of people died, and the Asian economic crisis in the same decade have taken their toll on the military.
“Previously discipline in the military was strong, but after the economic crisis in North Korea they could not control the armed forces,” he said.
“Because the economy was very bad many soldiers deserted. And the famine was also a problem, so discipline in the military has weakened.” [BBC]
There’s video at that link as well.
If your question is how strong North Korea’s military is, I’d speculate that the answer depends entirely on the type of conflict. The NKPA would probably do well at gunning down food rioters or protesters. Elite units would probably quell a regular army mutiny with ruthless efficiency. Special forces units could probably kill a lot of people in commando attacks in the South. And a U.S., Chinese, South Korean, or space alien invasion — those are events of approximately equal likelihood — would no doubt galvanize segments of the North Korean military into fanatical nationalism. And while many non-elite units may welcome such an event and decline to die facing the enemy, the units that would stand and fight would make the human cost prohibitive. Ironically, the North Korean military seems least likely to succeed at the one mission that most Americans worry about — a conventional invasion of the South.
Honestly, do you think that a military that can’t even prevent its soldiers from defecting during peacetime to stand up to the most awesome military in the history of the world?
If we invaded North Korea, what would be standing after the initial Shock & Awe, and would they be any better at fighting than the military and insurgency in Iraq? If they can’t even keep their soldiers active during peace time, how could they muster them up for war? With the command structure smashed to tiny pieces, how effectively would they work as a military, or would it simply be a bunch of military districts run half-heartedly and without any clear unifying goal?
What chance would any military they could muster have against the US Airborne Rangers, SEALs, and marines, battle-hardened by Afghanistan an Iraq?
Yes, the cost in human life would be tremendous, even if you count each American as a thousand North Koreans. But how much longer must we watch these people be driven about and beaten like animals at the hands of their torturers?
Jonathan,
There are no plans for a US-led invasion of the DPRK that do not make the Republic of Korea (ROK) Joint Forces the main effort in ground combat. The good news is that the ROK military would tear the KPA to shreds in a matter of days with US Air Power and Naval Power in support.
A conventional war with the DPRK would cause much destruction in the ROK by WMD and acts of terrorism perpetrated by inflitrating KPA special forces. Right now, nobody wants that. Pyongyang has 13,000 pieces of artillery aimed at the greater metropolitan Seoul area which is home to 23 million citizens.
What nobody knows with any alacrity is the effect Jucheism would have on the Norks’ will to fight even after their government has been pulverized. I fought in the invasion of Iraq and was astounded that so many Saddam Fedayeen (martyrs for Saddam) were willing to die for that tyrant in a losing cause. The Iraqis were totally dominated by Saddam as the Norks are by KJI with one exception: the Iraqis never worshiped Saddam or believed him to be a god. That is the case in the DPRK and the mind-controlled, compulsory religious cult of the Kims may have deeper resonance in many of the Norks than we would believe is rational.
I totally agree with your question:
But how much longer must we watch these people be driven about and beaten like animals at the hands of their torturers?
Anyone with a conscience knows this is a holocaust of its own for Asia. My personal belief is that there is a ‘Ceaucescu moment’ in the imminent future where the resistance in the DPRK comes above ground or that the death of KJI will precipitate a coup or a civil war, with Pyongyang collapsing and the masses converging on the capital to loot it as they did in Iraq when Baghdad fell.
The most contemptible of all scenarios was the failed Sunshine Policy of Roh Hoo Myun and Kim Dae Jung which placed the ROK government as the enabler of the DPRK torturers. In the end, the people of the ROK must resolve that reunification under a free market, democratic system is the only acceptable choice for the peninsula and they must be willing to take action to concretely achieve that goal. I can tell you now that short of a DPRK act of overt aggression, the political will for that scenario is just not here in the ROK.
Lastly, remember that the PRC was on the other side of the table in 1953 when the armistice was signed. They are still allies with the DPRK and no one knows how they will respond when Pyongyang collapses. Best case scenario is that the 6 parties agree to a stabilization plan which puts the UN in control (that is the case on paper as of now) but China is unlikely to honor any UN mandate that places a powerful, pro-west united Korea on its border.