Defector Describes Decline in N. Korean Military Morale

As if to affirm on cue what I’d written here, former North Korean battalion commander Kim Joo-Il explains why North Korea’s official military strength figures aren’t a very good indicator of its actual military strength:

“Officially the North Korea armed forces number 1.2 million – these are the official numbers,” Mr Kim said. “But they do not include the secret military service, so I do not know the exact figure of military personnel.

“About 100,000 people are conscripted annually and they serve for 10 years,” he added.

But Mr Kim says that the severe famine of the 1990s, in which huge numbers of people died, and the Asian economic crisis in the same decade have taken their toll on the military.

“Previously discipline in the military was strong, but after the economic crisis in North Korea they could not control the armed forces,” he said.

“Because the economy was very bad many soldiers deserted. And the famine was also a problem, so discipline in the military has weakened.” [BBC]

There’s video at that link as well.

If your question is how strong North Korea’s military is, I’d speculate that the answer depends entirely on the type of conflict. The NKPA would probably do well at gunning down food rioters or protesters. Elite units would probably quell a regular army mutiny with ruthless efficiency. Special forces units could probably kill a lot of people in commando attacks in the South. And a U.S., Chinese, South Korean, or space alien invasion — those are events of approximately equal likelihood — would no doubt galvanize segments of the North Korean military into fanatical nationalism. And while many non-elite units may welcome such an event and decline to die facing the enemy, the units that would stand and fight would make the human cost prohibitive. Ironically, the North Korean military seems least likely to succeed at the one mission that most Americans worry about — a conventional invasion of the South.