Must Read: Sanctions Could Cause N. Korean Regime to Collapse

The full report is here. I won’t have time to read it until this weekend, but here’s a teaser:

The North “is facing several domestic problems that in isolation would each be manageable but together could threaten regime survival,” said Daniel Pinkston, the group’s northeast Asia deputy project director.

“The North Korean government has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to survive, but the regime is under extreme pressure when it must also deal with looming succession issues.”

The 68-year-old Kim, who suffered a stroke in August 2008, has apparently chosen his third son Jong-Un as eventual successor. But it is unclear whether the son has the personal qualities or support to tackle “unprecedented” challenges, the report said.

In the short term, a smooth transition was likely. But if the successor could not improve the economy or tackle other crises, there could be a violent power struggle resulting in an army takeover or regime collapse, the Brussels-based ICG said.

The report said foreign exchange sources are drying up as UN sanctions crimp lucrative weapons exports and as joint business projects with South Korea founder amid worsening relations.

Humanitarian aid which feeds millions has declined due to political factors and donor fatigue, despite “chronic” food shortages and other economic deprivation.

Digression: maybe that explains why the North Korean regime is actually spending its foreign exchange on food for once, reportedly tripling its grain imports from China. For one thing, it’s gotten harder to spend it on other things; for another, food shortages become the regime’s problem when they threaten its control.

The North is also trying to cope with pressures arising from its disastrous currency revaluation last November 30 and a collapsed public health system, the ICG said.

In spite of the pressures on the regime, the state security apparatus makes a popular revolution impossible, the ICG said.

“But despite the loyalty of elites in the party and the military, a sudden split in the leadership, although unlikely, is not out of the question.”

Robert Templer, the ICG Asia programme director, said instability, a coup or even regime collapse would not be observable from the outside until well under way.

But “any of these scenarios could create a humanitarian emergency that might require international intervention”.

Most of which sounds about right to me. By the way, we might as well start our own Kim Jong Il death pool, since everyone else has. I mentioned the report that Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs Kurt Campbell reportedly said 2013, while the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification says 2012. Open Radio’s Young Howard says 2012; see also this interview for more rumors of Kim Jong Il’s ill health, plus some interesting updates on the food situation, rising discontent, and cell phone crackdowns.

Place your bets.