What it looks like when a torpedo hits a ship

I don’t call this conclusive, but it certainly was persuasive to me.

Now, compare those images to images of the bow and stern of the Cheonan, paying special attention to the bottom of the hull nearest the break.

For those who want the long version:

A team of scientists believes that the Navy corvette Cheonan sank after being hit by a heavy 206 kg torpedo that ran at a speed of 65 km/h.

Bae Myung-jin, a professor at the Sound Engineering Research Lab of Soongsil University, on Thursday said his team analyzed data about the seismic waves generated at the time of explosion of the Cheonan, which were provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration and the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources. “As a result, we presume that the torpedo ran at the Cheonan at the speed of 65.7 km/h and exploded underwater 2.3 m from the ship with power equivalent to 206 kg of TNT.”

He said heavy torpedoes with a payload capacity of 200 kg are usually 7 to 8 m long. The explosive is stored not in the head but in the rear part 1 to 6 m away from the head. Thus even if the head hits the hull, the explosion normally occurs a few meters away from the ship. [Chosun Ilbo]

“North Korean submarines are all armed with heavy torpedoes with 441-lb warheads. It is the military intelligence’s assessment that the North attacked with a heavy torpedo.” [The Examiner]

That certainly seems to be where all of the evidence is leading. The BBC actually has some very good point-by-point analysis, too:

* The skin of the ship was bent inwards, pointing to an external rather than an internal explosion, a conclusion given further weight by the fact that the ship’s weapons storage area is intact

* There are no signs of scraping, or of a collision, ruling out the possibility that the ship ran aground

* There is no evidence of soot or melting on the skin of the ship, suggesting that the external explosion took place some distance away from the hull

And that old mine theory has also been ruled out.

Quietly, the American government has already begun to consult with the Korean government about how each will respond.