Psyops Updates

Kim Jung-Wook, the Joongang Ilbo’s Washington Correspondent, thinks that the Cheonan Incident has revived the U.S.-Korea alliance, but frankly, the end result may well be the exact opposite. No, the incident didn’t raise tensions in a way that makes obvious the many conflicts in the two states’ interests, and yes, President Obama has shown more backbone than the North Koreans probably expected. The problem with this theory is that so far, there has been no significant response to the attack from either South Korea or the United States, which means that the military deterrence of North Korea has reached a critical point of failure. If the two governments fail to implement an effective response to the attack that deters the next one, you’ll begin to see a lot of Koreans ask exactly what security benefit the alliance confers on South Korea anyway.

But then, the alliance is about creating the illusion that we might use conventional military force, and the best that the threat of conventional military force can hope to accomplish is to preserve a degrading stasis. It is political and psychological warfare that are the keys to the initiative in Korea, and which will determine the outcome of the Korean War. South Korea is flunking its opportunity to win through psychological warfare because it doesn’t get this, and because it has already lost the loyalty of so much of its own population. North Korea has the ability to mobilize millions of South Korean voters, activists, and union members — directly and otherwise, with their knowledge and otherwise — because it does get this.

And yet South Korea seems lacking in the will to do anything that would reach ordinary North Koreans:

“We completed the first round of loudspeaker installment June 9, but haven’t decided on when to resume the propaganda broadcasts,” said a South Korean military official who asked for anonymity. “We’ll make that decision after seeing what progress is made at the UN Security Council.

The official said that setting up the loudspeakers is just the first step toward putting pressure on the North’s military, which has threatened to shoot down the loudspeakers if the broadcasts are resumed. [Joongang Ilbo]

Let’s hope the South Koreans give more thought to message and media alike, because I suspect that because of North Koreans’ puritanical programming about sex, messages like this, however much appeal they have for sweaty middle-aged white guys, will backfire on the small North Korean audiences they actually reach.

Frankly, if you want to know what messages will persuade North Koreans, I suggest asking a North Korean. Michael Gerson, writing in the Washington Post, talks about Radio Free North Korea, the potential of psyops, and the opposition it has attracted from “unification activists”:

It is a risky, lonely task. Defectors are living reminders of heroic, dangerous struggles that prosperous, comfortable South Koreans would sometimes prefer to ignore. “Korean socialist groups,” says Kim, “held demonstrations, forcing us to move from location to location. In the mail, we got axes covered in blood. North Korea sent spies. Hackers attacked our Web site. At some point, all of us started carrying Tasers for self-protection. Even now there are two policemen waiting downstairs who protect me.”

One day, the files of the Reconnaissance Bureau of the Chosun Workers’ Party will make for very interesting reading for some, and very embarrassing reading for plenty of South Koreans.