North Korea Isn’t Egypt

So in response to some questions I’ve received via e-mail and this, no, what’s happening in Egypt can’t happen in North Korea, at least not in the foreseeable future. The two systems are not remotely comparable.

Few of Mubarak’s soldiers would kill civilians if ordered to do so. The Egyptian people know this, which means he’s doomed. Mubarak is a dictator, but he’s merely an authoritarian dictator, not a totalitarian on the model of the leaders of Burma, North Korea, China, or Saudi Arabia. His control of ideas in his society has been largely ineffective since the invention of the internet. There is an organized opposition, although it lacked the capacity to challenge the regime until recently.

North Korean soldiers would kill civilians by the thousands if ordered. The North Korean people know this, which is why few challenge the state openly. It’s also why the system can only be overthrown by force of arms. Kim Jong Il is the most totalitarian of dictators in the wide spectrum of dictatorship. His control of ideas, though weakening, remains effective enough to slow their spread and isolate the people from each other. There is no internet as we know it, and there is no significant organized opposition. The only group with the capacity to challenge the state is a hypothetical cabal of military mutineers.

The best outcome we can hope for in Egypt would be the speedy appointment of a provisional government backed by the army, the departure of Mubarak immediately thereafter, and a fixed timetable for elections. That timetable ought to be long enough to give a liberal democratic opposition enough time to campaign, gather strength, and make its case against the Muslim Brotherhood turning Egypt into a Sunni Arab Iran. But as time passes, there will be more violence and the opposition will radicalize. The only way I see to stop this cycle would be to change the subject and take the momentum out of the demonstrations, and the only way I see to do this an announcement that Mubarak will cede power on a prompt and certain date.