Open Sources: The Rason Sell-Off Continues
Here’s more information about China’s growing impatience and frustration with North Korea:
They seem to be expressing their frustration with high-profile photo ops and by pouring more cash into the 288-square-mile Rason zone, which is completely surrounded by a fence that may or may not be electrified (but then, pretty much all of North Korea may or may not be electrified). Unlike South Korea, expect China to hold onto whatever real estate it buys from North Korea’s failing regime.
KCNA is also promoting these ceremonies quite lavishly, probably in an effort to manipulate the South Koreans. The Chosun Ilbo speculates about the current standing of Jang Song-Thaek, the senior official present. Jang is seen by most as the power behind the scenes in North Korea, but that’s a matter of intense debate among the experts I’ve spoken with. ta
The Unification Ministry has appointed a North Korean to lead a group that teaches South Koreans what to expect during reunification.
South Korea’s Unification Minister has again called on the National Assembly to pass a North Korean human rights law. Meanwhile, the left-wing Democratic Party appears to have succeeded in watering down the long-debated, long-delayed human law by shifting its focus to aid. What is implied rather than clearly stated in the Times’s report is that the original circa 2005 bill’s emphasis on monitoring that aid will be diluted or dropped. Adding to this confusion, it’s still not clear what the current version of the bill actually says, or whether the watering down will suffice to get the bill passed.
The Economist takes an early look at the next South Korean presidential election. I have a very bad feeling about this one — call it Spidey sense — though I’ll predict nothing except that several things will happen between now and election day to completely transform the character of the race.
Is North Korea turning to sex tourism to raise cash? This would seem easy enough to verify, given that it’s supposedly happening at the Koryo and Yanggakdo hotels. Anyone want to fill me in, anonymously if need be? No matter how libertine or puritan your views on the sex trade may be as a general matter, it’s just breathtakingly irresponsible to risk fathering a racially mixed child to face an uncertain fate in North Korea. This is to say nothing of the obvious risk of getting your Anthony caught in a honey trap engineered by the Reconnaissance Bureau.
Rason is a really big deal. Two years ago, I questioned in my own mind whether it would come off. A year ago, I was interested to see that it was really in progress. Now it is a sure thing. Within two years, it will have provided the Kim family with all the discretionary income they will need, in yuan. It will defeat the entire purpose of UN sanctions. It may not bring stability — indeed, the more successful it is, the greater is the likelihood of eventual internal dissent in the DPRK.
It is has the potential to be a major aid to Chinese exports, and to undermine the Japanese and Korean shipping industry, because a Chinese port at Rason is several hundred thousand dollars of fuel per voyage closer to the USA than the present Chinese ports. A major Chinese presence near the Tyumen is acceptable to the Russians at present, especially since they are selling their oil and gas directly to China in Renminbi — but a truly major port is a threat to Vladivostok.
Rason is a game changer