War Clouds

Today, the signs from South Korea shifted from ominous to jumpy:

South Korean marines fired rifles at a civilian jetliner as it was descending to land after mistaking it for a North Korean military aircraft, the airline said Saturday. The Asiana Airlines flight carrying 119 people from the Chinese city of Chengdu was undamaged in the incident around dawn Friday, the airline said. No one on board was hurt or aware of the shooting, and the South Korean Marine Corps informed the airline of it later in the day, it said.
[….]

“The Marine Corps did fire, but they misidentified the plane,” Asiana spokesman Jason Kim said. “The plane did not suffer any damage and it landed safely.”

I don’t know whether to be gratified or worried about the marksmanship of the Marines. OK, yes I do.

Defense Minister Kim Kwan-Jin says something big may be in the works:

“The possibility of a surprise provocation (by North Korea) with various means and methods is steadily increasing while pressurizing us with rhetorical threats,” Kim told lawmakers at a parliamentary session. “North Korea is also continuing its activities to maintain its status for a nuclear test and a missile launch.”

In his comments on the current debate about giving food aid to North Korea, Marcus Noland has voiced the suspicion that North Korea wants food aid now to help it prepare for the economic consequences of some provocation it’s now planning. I wonder if the members of Congress currently pushing an amendment to block food aid for North Korea also give credence to that theory.

For his part, President Lee is doing what he should be doing — sending a strong message of deterrence to the North Koreans, here, while inaugurating a new military command responsible for protecting the area around this vital air and sea corridor, one that controls access to the airport and seaport and Incheon, and by extension, Seoul:

“Our military exists to prevent war and defend peace, but it must strongly and thoroughly retaliate in case of attacks,” said Lee, who was not present at the ceremony at Hwaseong City, some 20 km (12.5 miles) south of Seoul. [….]

Lee said the North had continuously engaged in provocative acts since the Korean War ended in 1953, but these two deadly attacks [on the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island] had taught the South’s military costly lessons.

“Our military failed to react swiftly and efficiently to the North’s asymmetric military forces and provocations in limited areas,” he said, adding its different branches also failed to coordinate.

Lee’s government has also leaked word that he has deployed missiles to the border region that could hit Pyongyang. I’ve said before that it would be wiser for South Korea to limit the military component of its response and amplify its economic and subversive components. That ought to start with the closure of Kaesong, something that’s wise in any event if the South Koreans think a North Korean provocation could become a major hostage crisis.

I’m on record as saying that a limited war is exactly what Kim Jong Il needs to legitimize his son as another great general, which is why we should try to destabilize the regime without getting into one. Still, if Lee thinks a military response is necessary, he should at least consider the political impact by striking at Kim Jong Il’s palaces, which are symbols what makes Kim Jong Il so reviled both inside North Korea and elsewhere. North Korea couldn’t make a propaganda spectacle of their destruction without focusing attention on Kim Jong Il’s own profligate lifestyle, inviting a contrast with the squalor and hunger in which most North Koreans somehow live.