Anju, March 29, 2012
REVERSED POLARITY: North Korea is still denying to the world that it sank the Cheonan, but according to one recent defector, it’s proudly proclaiming its responsibility at home. On the other hand, former Ambassador Donald Gregg, who as far as I know hasn’t actually defected in the geographic sense, nonetheless is still getting ink from KCNA for his Cheonan conspiracy theorizing. Maybe one of the AP’s new North Korean “correspondents” should interview him.
MISSILE SATELLITE LAUNCH UPDATE: Despite the danger that pieces of North Korea’s rocket could fall on Japanese or South Korean territory, I strongly doubt that either Japan or South Korea will make good on its threats to shoot the thing down. If I’m wrong, here’s a run-down of how that would work.
I THOUGHT THEY SAID THERE WAS NO QUID PRO QUO: “The United States has suspended plans to send food aid to North Korea because it has broken a promise to halt missile launches and cannot be trusted to give the help to those who need it, a Pentagon official said Wednesday.” I don’t know anyone who actually trusts the State Department, but I do know a lot of smug people who believe that deceiving the hoi-polloi is necessary to create “space” for the mendacious to do their work.
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: “More than 30 officials were executed in North Korea last year to consolidate new leader Kim Jong-un’s grip on power, international human rights watchdog Amnesty International said Tuesday.”
GIVES A WHOLE NEW MEANING TO ‘NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND:’ What Orwellian lengths the Chicoms go to to make sure starving kids get shipped off to concentration camps.
Hello,
I have been reading your site, and others, for a while. I am sort of an amateur student of history, at least an observer I guess. It seems that North Korea’s recent actions, such as increasing sorties of their Air Force among others is a sign that they might attack South Korea again. I think reneging on the deal that would have provided 240,000 tons in food aid is a dead give away.
This hypothetical or possible coming attack could be done one of several ways. I do not think it will be a rerun of the Cheonan or of Yeongpyeong. I think the new Kim (Kim3?) wants to look like a war hero to his regime.
This is all about internal consumption, PR, in North Korea. It always is when a country is a third world backwater with a strongman government. I actually surmise that the Kim regime has only lasted this long because South Korea’s response to provocations and attacks is so limited as to actually empower the North.
How many North Koreans saw a South Korean response to Cheonan or Yeongpyeong or even to Korean Air flight 858 or the 1996 incursion of the midget submarine. Sure those guys were hunted down, but how many people in NK saw anything at all?
Like I said, its all about internal stability and consumption of propaganda in North Korea and South Korea’s response (very likely to be limited as the US/UN call for restraint) could very well give Kim3 exactly what he wants: Legitimacy as a military leader.
The South Korean government has the ability to repond in a way that would weaken the Kim regime and make it lose face domestically. The response to say an artillery barrage against northern Seoul should not be an artillery barrage against artillery sites along the DMZ. The response should be something that can be seen and recognized by the citizens of North Korea. Something that could seriously weaken the Kim dynasty, loss of face.
The South must be prepared, pre-planned, to launch cruise missiles to take out government buildings in Pyongyang and other cities. Communist Party headquarters, KCNA, radio stations, radio jamming (and be ready to broadcast into NK on their own frequencies), favorite palaces of the Kim family etc. Make it where the average person in the city can see the damage, even if very limited, for themselves.
This will weaken the North Korean slave empire government more than anything. It will hit them where it really hurts. It can even be done almost as soon as the first NK shells begin hitting SK territory. Long before the US and UN are calling for restraint.
This is what SHOULD happen. I fear it won’t. I fear the response will once again embolden and empower the North Korean government.
“but according to one recent defector, it’s proudly proclaiming its responsibility at home.”
Of course, they probably would take internal credit for it even if they didn’t do it.