Open Sources, 17 September 2012
NORTH KOREAN REFORM WATCH, PART I: Marcus Noland writes that inflation has risen sharply, and that “macroeconomic instability” has returned to North Korea:
Recent anecdotal reports of price changes conveyed in both press reports and in private communications from travelers returning from North Korea suggest a surge in inflation. Simple calculations suggest that the value of the won may have depreciated at an annualized rate of 200 percent or more over the past 6 months, with some evidence of an acceleration in the rate of depreciation over the past two months.”
Read further, and this turns out to be the result of a hokey scheme by which the banks sell rice for hard currency, which of course sucks the rice out of the markets and screws the poor. And then, there is the fear of another currency “reform.”
NORTH KOREAN REFORM WATCH, PART II: “Destitute North Korea accepts, then rejects, flood aid from South.” When offered “10,000 tons of flour, three million packets of instant noodles and medicine,” the North Korean response was, “That type of support is not needed.” What the New York Times didn’t mention is that they wanted building materials instead.
NORTH KOREAN REFORM WATCH, PART III: You know, for an AP report, this one by Tim Sullivan is a lot of things that a Jean Lee report wouldn’t be — balanced, cautious, and forthcoming about what the reporter doesn’t know and isn’t allowed to see. Even Evans Revere is quoted while saying something sensible. Plenty of people — maybe a majority of North Korea watchers — fall for the “reform” trick every time it’s tried. No one really knows the truth, but I’ll guess that some things will change, some deck chairs will be rearranged, and the effect will be to consolidate more wealth and control in Pyongyang and less everywhere else.
MISSING SAM BROWNBACK: Last week, the House finally passed the North Korean Refugee Adoption Act, which is all that remains of the “North Korean Refugee and Reconstruction Act” after the committees spent the last three years gutting it. The bill is designed to help kids hiding in shelters like these. Unfortunately, passing the House doesn’t mean much when John Kerry, the High Priest of Appeasement, is the Senate gatekeeper, and when the Republicans on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee show little interest or competence when it comes to North Korea issues.
WHY I CALL THE UNITED NATIONS THE WORLD’S GREATEST OXYMORON: Congress wants an investigation into those technology transfers to North Korea by the U.N.’s World Intellectual Property Organization — the ones that may have violated several U.N. Security Council resolutions.
THE NEW DIPLOMACY: In today’s world, instigating violent protests is the hottest new trend in diplomacy. Heck, if it can make the U.S. government back away from the First Amendment, I’m sure a few measly little islands should be an easy get.