Open Sources, December 23, 2013

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WHERE IS KIM KYONG-HUI? Last week, I posted about reports that she had left North Korea for medical treatment abroad, following a seizure brought on by the execution of her husband, Jang Song-Taek. A reader wrote in to ask how this could have happened without the Japanese press seeing her at the Beijing airport, and via The Chosun Ilbo, we have one possible explanation — the treatment is (or was) being performed in Russia. The Chosun Ilbo and Yonhap both report that Kim Kyong Hui’s treatment occurred in November, and seem to suggest that she has since returned to North Korea. That would not explain why she was absent from the memorial service for her brother, Kim Jong Il.

The most authoritative statement comes from the head of the NIS, who says that Kim is “is still safe and has not had any health problems since her husband’s purge” but lying low. That would suggest that Jang’s fate was sealed earlier than reported. He also says that Jang was purged over “disputes surrounding profitable businesses.” In other words, it’s all about the money, and money is their main vulnerability. As for which of these conflicting reports to believe, I really don’t know, but none of them suggests that Kim Kyong Hui currently exerts much influence.

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NIS DENIES DEFECTION REPORTS: If the NIS is telling the truth and a senior Jang aide really didn’t defect, I’d be disappointed, although other, lesser officials may have valuable intelligence to offer … if the South Koreans can find them before the Chinese do.

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PURGED OFFICIALS SENT TO VICINITY OF CAMP 16: “Kim Jong-un is quietly sending Jang’s cronies to the provinces and executing them there,” claimed Ahn Chan-il of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. ‘Railroad stations in Pyongyang are teeming as the military herds people associated with Jang onto trains to provincial regions’ like Hwasong, North Hamgyong Province.” The report cites a single source, but fits with other reports we’ve heard.

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BRUCE BENNETT ON REGIME STABILITY:  “While Kim carried out the purge, he said, ‘in doing so he has threatened the upper tiers of regime leaders in ways that had largely not occurred in decades.’ This will add to those elites who have ‘personal reasons’ to act against Kim, biding their time, ‘fearing for their own security and that of their families.’ ‘They may act very loyal day to day, but look for opportunities to remove Kim Jong-un and the threat he poses to them personally.’” Read the whole interview.

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KIM JONG UN ORDERED EXECUTIONS IN DRUNKEN RAGE, MAYBE POSSIBLY. This is my favorite apocryphal report of the whole week, so far.

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U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONDEMNS N. KOREA ON HUMAN RIGHTS:  “The UN General Assembly on Wednesday adopted a resolution condemning human rights abuses in North Korea. The UN has adopted similar resolutions every year since 2005, and this year’s was passed by consensus without the need for a vote, just like last year’s. The UN expressed ‘very serious concern at the persistence of continuing reports of systematic, widespread and grave violations of civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights.’” 

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ROK DEFENSE MINISTRY RESPONDS to North Korea’s latest threat: “Under the name of the Ministry of National Defense’s policy planning office, we sent a reply to the North…. We warned clearly that our military will sternly retaliate to any North Korean provocation.”

Those who are “in the know” sound unanimous that this time, South Korea means it. Personally, I’ll be convinced of that when I see it. On the whole, I still think any limited war likely benefits Kim Jong Un more than it deters him, which is why he may want to provoke one. If you really want to deter Kim Jong Un — and get his Chinese sponsors to help you deter him — threaten him with a full-scale campaign of subversive information operations and financial constriction, which would invariably target Chinese banks and mining companies.

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DENNIS HALPIN WRITES about some other Dennis who did not meet Kim Jong Un this week, and about the survival prospects of Kim Jong Un’s remaining relatives.