Open Sources, March 10, 2014

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HE SAYS HE’S NOT DEAD! Choe Ryong-Hae resurfaces. Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un’s half-sister, Kim Yeo-Jong, has been appointed to North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament.

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NORTH KOREA THREATENS THE U.S. AGAIN, in response to U.S. criticisms of North Korea’s ballistic missile launches, in violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. For those who track North Korean rhetorical levels, KCNA seems to be going relatively easy on Seoul, but has been cranking out some exceptionally violent anti-American rhetoric lately. No doubt, they have some tactical reason for that, such as trying to split the U.S. and South Korea, or play the political game in South Korea. Either way, South Korea doesn’t act very reassured about it, and isn’t ready to offer the North any aid yet.

Meanwhile, those missiles turn out to be 300-millimeter multiple-launch rockets that bear a suspicious resemblance to a Chinese system, and which would likely have a greater range than the North’s existing 240-millimeter systems, which can range about half of Seoul and are rumored to be capable of carrying chemical and thermobaric warheads.

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THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT HAS RELEASED its annual report on the North Korean military.

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LIBYAN PRIME MINISTER THREATENS TO SINK a North Korean tanker loading at a rebel-held port. This is the sort of language the North Koreans typically understand. It would be interesting to know whether North Korea’s sudden willingness to take risks to acquire oil abroad are related to the lack of oil supplies from China in January, although other lapses last year turned out to have been driven by domestic factors in North Korea.

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LAST MONTH, the Daily NK reported that the North had eased up on punishing people for religious expression. Skeptic that I am, I bookmarked that story and waited for more information to corroborate or refute the story. The latest word, however, is that North Korea was about to execute 33 people for having contact with South Korean missionaries. The story cites “a source” and is impossible to confirm, but I’d be very hesitant to believe that North Korea is liberalizing its rule domestically, when most signs indicate that they’re cracking down hard, and succeeding at choking off the flow of information.

Kim Jong Un’s success at sealing the borders may be the single most consequential development of his rule, because despite the failure of Sunshine and engagement, the clandestine flow of information that has been a very real engine of change in North Korea, and could yet bring even more profound changes.

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BUT HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL: The Economist still wants to believe that reform is on the horizon, but if you examine the evidence it cites, their reporter is confusing reform with oligarchy, and basing his analysis on the false premise that North Korea is socialist. In fact, Pyongyang’s survival strategy is based on aggressive state capitalism. The fact that things have gotten better for a few in Pyongyang only means that Kim Jong Un is using that strategy to feed himself and his cronies first.

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WELL, THAT’S A RELIEF FOR SOMEONE, I GUESS: South Korea gets reassurances from the Pentagon that the U.S. won’t reduce the size of USFK, just as the ROK government announces that it’s slashing the size of the ROK Army by 110,000 troops. For a President who speaks so much about reunification, Park Geun Hye isn’t doing what needs to be done to prepare for it. Don’t smoke your jackpot, Madame President.

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AHN CHOL-SOO MERGES WITH the center-left Democratic Party, after the DP triangulates toward the center. I wonder how long it will take for the DP to move back to the left now, unless the likes of Lim Soo-Kyung and others on the far left decide to split away.