Open Sources, June 27, 2014
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A REMARKABLE COINCIDENCE: Say, do you suppose there could possibly be any link between the decision of the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Fatou Bensouda of the Gambia, to close her investigations of the Cheonan and Yeonpyong incidents four years ago, and the visit by North Korea’s Foreign Minister to Gambia earlier this month, at which time the two governments discussed “boosting the bilateral relations of friendship and cooperation and on matters of mutual concern?” Do you suppose Banjul will soon feature a new statue of President Yahya Jammeh?
Curiously enough, until 2000, Bensouda was one of Jammeh’s closest advisors, serving as his top prosecutor, Attorney General, and Minister of Justice. In these capacities, she specialized in not investigating the security forces for shooting protesters, beating dissidents, and detaining alleged coup plotters without charge … until Jammeh fired her for some reason. This may be the high point of Bensouda’s C.V., and in retrospect, it was probably career-enhancing that she was no longer around when Jammeh called for the expulsion or beheading of all homosexuals, or when he said that L.G.B.T. stands for “Leprosy, Gonorrhoea, Bacteria and Tuberculosis.”
I don’t know how much influence Jammeh has over Bensouda these days, but the timing is suspicious, especially with all of the media speculation that Kim Jong Un could be charged before the ICC for crimes against humanity. No, North Korea has never been particularly judgmental about its choice of friends, but something is awfully wrong when a body charged with the global enforcement of humanitarian standards imports its most important personnel—and consequently, its standards of judgment—from the likes of Yahya Jammeh.
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NO, CHINA DID NOT CUT OFF NORTH KOREA’S OIL SUPPLY: Why does Yonhap keep peddling this bullshit story, suggesting that China is pressuring North Korea by cutting off the latter’s oil supply? A reader (thank you!) sent me the KOTRA statistics that Yonhap is relying on for this story. They do show that China has cut off the supply of crude oil — which may or may not be because China excludes crude oil from the statistics by calling it aid — but the statistics also show a massive increase in China’s supply of refined petroleum products (like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) to North Korea.
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SUNG-YOON LEE AND ZACHARY PRZYSTUP have an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal about Japan’s revisionism on comfort women. For the life of me, I can’t understand how Japan’s leaders can be foolish enough to alienate what might be its two most important allies — the U.S. and South Korea — just as China is threatening to seize its territory, by revisiting its own ugly history and by cutting side deals with Kim Jong Un.
Update: More on this topic, from Dennis Halpin.
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THOSE SHORT-RANGE MISSILES North Korea just tested may have been tactical guided missiles.
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NORTH KOREA PERESTROIKA WATCH: Security forces are raiding homes in Ryanggang Province to find illegal cell phones.
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THE STORY OF THE LAOS NINE inspires a little girl in South Korea to become a human rights activist. More of this, please.
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A REQUEST: If there are any Wall Street Journal subscribers out there, can anyone kindly send me the text of this op-ed on the prosecution of French bank BNP Paribas for sanctions violations?
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WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG? North Korea will open an embassy in Venezuela.
President Obama will give weapons to vetted Syrians. But how will they be vetted? One important point: if they previously accepted weapons from North Korea, they’re vetted out.
Funny stuff, Glans. But it’s already out of date. ISIS are now simply IS. That means there is probably a remaindered faction who still identify as ISIS. So ‘ISIS’ could now apply for US weapons and funding, using the enemy’s enemy rationale. After all, they must be less extremist than the new organization, IS. But instead of funding ISIS, what we should be doing is funding IS. After all, they will surely be moderates in comparison to the next offshoot group, ‘I’.
Oil. DailyNK thinks oil is still being supplied to the DPRK while Chosun Ilbo says military cadre forces lack gasoline even for routine transportation. DailyNK says there’s an eleven inch cross-border line at Dandong operated by CNPC, and it suggests it carries crude oil.
Today a Japanese academic (China’s Resurgent Warlords) proposed that Jang’s execution was approved by the long-resident military powers in the Shenyang Military Region, who support and sustain the DPRK because they (and the PLA in general) are in sympathy with neo-Marxist ideals. These were the populist theories of the (disgraced) Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang of uniformity of national income. These ideals are political dynamite and wholly opposed to the present ruling party views that income inequality is not a crime.
The article suggests that the Shenyang Armies have the power to take over, and that Beijing is leery of them.
And oil? CNPC is controlled by Beijing. So I think it is likely that the Dandong line has indeed been shut down, as a demonstration against Shenyang independence…and that Xi’s visit to Seoul is a warning not only to Pyongyang but also to Shenyang.
The idea that the PLA administration in Shenyang has its own foreign policy in respect of the DPRK which is out of step with Beijing and the UN makes a lot of sense. Also the idea that it is traditional Marxist or neo-Marxist in tone makes it a very dangerous one. Not only do we see the three Chinas of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou/Hong Kong, but now there’s also Shenyang.