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Whatever you want to say about the election, say it here

I’m sad that my friend, Suzanne Scholte lost, but glad that she managed a credible performance despite having no history of running for, or holding, elective office, and despite lacking any money for TV or radio ads, or to raise a large and experienced campaign staff. She also did it despite redistricting that followed Connolly’s very close win in 2010, something I only heard about a few weeks ago, when a federal court held that the plan was unconstitutional. The redistricting made Va-11 much more democratic; one wonders whether the next plan might be friendlier if Suzanne decides to run again, and if the Republicans decide to back her financially. Obviously, she didn’t run on the issue that caused me to support her, but I hope that when her disappointment fades, she’ll regroup and consider another try in 2016.

I’m not at all unhappy at the idea of being represented by Gerry Connolly, and I wish him well. Connolly is also good on the issue caused me to support my long-time friend, Suzanne. In a more perfect world, I wouldn’t have to choose between them.

I’m very happy that former House Foreign Affairs Committee staffer Young Kim won her election to the California State Assembly, partially because I hope will be her stepping stone to Congress one day. I saw her two weeks ago in L.A., when I addressed a Korean-American organization, as did several political candidates of both parties. Kim is a natural politician, one of those rare people who can enter a room filled with hundreds of people and make every one of them feel important, including the short, dumpy, unimportant ones. Kim carries herself with a natural elegance more often seen in movie stars, something you almost have to bask in to fully appreciate. But then, it is southern California.

It will be interesting to see how this result affects the prospects of H.R. 1771, the North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, in the Senate. Despite its bipartisan support in the House, I don’t think there’s much question that its short-term prospects improve under a Republican Congress and a Democratic President. Despite the administration’s likely concerns that it forces the State Department’s hand too much, the Administration may be tempted to ask Senate Democrats to pass a weaker version in this Congress, in the hope of drawing off some of the impetus for the next Congress to pass something more robust.

As far as the broader election result is concerned, I’m sure you can find better places to talk about that, but for those of you who are disappointed this morning, in a spirit of offering consolation, I’ll link to my post following the 2006 elections. That election was a backlash against a botched war (and other botched things); this one is a backlash against a botched peace (and other botched things). Aside from that difference, much of what I said about that result is true of this one, too. I don’t think either election was really about ideology so much as buyer’s remorse, and the punishment of incompetence.

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Update: One of the most interesting election stories to me was a massive swing by Asian voters toward Republicans. Asian voters still only made up 3% of the electorate, but their votes were split evenly between the two parties this time. Historically, they’ve favored Democrats. I wish I could see a better statistical breakdown by ethnicity. For example, we know that Japanese-Americans are usually loyal Democrats and Vietnamese-Americans are most likely to vote Republican, but how did Korean-Americans vote?

For all voters, the most important issues were the economy (48%), health care (25%), illegal immigration (14%), and foreign policy (13%). It wasn’t a foreign policy election, but foreign policy is back in the top four.

18 Responses

  1. In a year when Republicans won all over the country, Gerry Connolly (D) won 106,726 votes (57%) to Suzanne Scholte’s (R) 75,760 (40%).

    Well Joshua, you ain’t no kingmaker.

  3. You can see why any Republican would do well. Obama has dithered a lot lately and hasn’t really shown strong leadership. He does like a round of golf though doesn’t he?

    The Republicans could do well with the right candidate at the next Presidential election.

  4. I’m happy. Gerry Connolly, who has a strong record on North Korean human rights, will continue to represent the good people of the eleventh congressional district of Virginia. Joshua Stanton, an outstanding attorney and blogger, will continue doing what he does best.

    Matthew, the Republicans have some very good potential candidates. Joni Ernst, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, …

  5. Has the word “dithered” ever been used in a context that was not a Republican criticizing Obama? In such a strong and prosperous nation, it is a little weird that people love to resort to the exact same language they heard from some talking points.

  6. I’m curious what the electoral implications are to the Korean dialogs that may or may not be happening.

    Part of me thinks the President will actually now pivot to Asia and start trying to push to make a deal (any deal will do) to secure a legacy; part of me thinks he’ll just stay at home and hit the links.

  7. How can you make a deal with North Korea unless you pay them? How can you pay them if the Congress won’t appropriate funds for it? This isn’t insurmountable, but it seems like a pretty big obstacle. I don’t see Obama throwing away any of his declining influence for the sake of North Korea, when he’s about to have big fights over Iran, ISIS, and immigration.

    I think it’s more likely that Kerry steps down after a few months and some moderate caretaker figure takes over at State.

  8. @Glans

    I can see one of those as the next President. The Republican Party will capitalize on Obamas failure. I have no doubts.

  9. Joshua, we’ll also see a fight over Obamacare. But there will be no fight over North Korea, because so few Americans give a poop about it.

    Matthew, I forgot Sam Brownback. He’s done a job on the economy of Kansas, and Joshua will endorse him because of his record on North Korea.

  10. How can Democrats win? By being conservative like Mark Pryor, who lost his Senate seat? No.

    “I think if you look at the returns around the country .?.?. it raises questions about just how successful the bipartisanship brand really is,” Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) said Tuesday after easily winning a fourth term in Northern Virginia’s 11th Congressional District by talking about women’s rights, immigration reform and climate change — and less about working with Republicans.

    Jenna Portnoy and Rachel Weiner report for the Washington Post.

  12. Conservative democrats are toast. Some progressive democrats will win, some will lose, but conservative voters won’t support any democrat.

  13. What amazes me is that this election was supposedly about Obama’s 40% approval rating, yet somehow Congress’ 12% approval rating wasn’t an issue at all. That’s just the GOP and Dems doing an excellent and piss poor job of campaigning, respectively.

  14. @Gary: one of the great ironies of American politics is that while people hate the institution of Congress-they like their individual representative. Congress sucks, but our personal Congresscritter does a fantastic job. Thus, the individuals are absolved.

    Unfortunately for him, the President has no such collective force to blend into.

  16. 48% of Asians voted GOP. However, only 35% of Jews voted GOP. Seems like Asians are more patriotic than Jews.

  18. @Blackstone: True, but this was such an extreme case. The government shutdown was a badly-managed fiasco that angered everyone, which the public (correctly) blamed the House GOP for, sending their approval ratings into single digits. Yet when the elections rolled around, retaining control of the House wasn’t even in question. That was the under-reported story in all this.

    There’s no way for that to happen without millions of people voting for a local representative who was actively involved in something the polls say voters disapprove of. Yes, it wasn’t the entire House GOP. Yes, there are some districts extreme enough to want more government shutdowns. But overall the math just doesn’t work.