I don’t blame Obama for N. Korea’s nuke test. I blame him for not enforcing the law.
It’s grim vindication this morning to see my prediction from two months ago now validated. This bomb appears to have had a higher yield than those that preceded it, and may show progress toward miniaturization. I’d already posted my recommendations for how to respond to this test, back in July. For the U.N. Security Council, the response should include new rounds of designations and the closing of sanctions loopholes. I hope Samantha Power will also push for bans on North Korea’s exports of food and labor.
For the administration, the answer is simpler — it should enforce the law the President signed in February. Ed Royce, the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, has now added his voice to Senator Bob Corker’s prescient call for just that.
“The North Korean regime’s continued belligerence demands a strong and swift response. The United States cannot accept a nuclear North Korea that threatens America and our foreign partners with mass destruction. That’s why, earlier this year, Democrats and Republicans in Congress joined together to help impose unprecedented new sanctions on the Kim regime. Sadly, however, it is clear the Obama administration’s enforcement efforts are falling short.
“Most notably, the administration has yet to impose sanctions on any of the many Chinese companies and banks that, according to a recent U.N. report, continue to support the North Korean regime. This must change. We’ve seen before that China will only comply with sanctions if Chinese banks face real consequences for doing business in North Korea.
“The United States and our foreign partners should also act quickly to sanction North Korea’s state-owned airline. Air Koryo continues to flagrantly violate the ban on luxury goods and has been implicated in the proliferation of SCUD missile parts. At the same time, the administration must also work with European governments to better block luxury items – including cars, watches, and liquor – from reaching North Korea’s repressive ruling elite.
“Aggressive sanctions enforcement, along with a renewed focus on stopping the North Korean regime’s export of slave labor, is key to cutting off the cash needed to sustain Kim Jong Un’s power, and his illicit weapons programs. Today’s detonation wasn’t just about testing nuclear technology. It was also about testing America’s resolve. Now is the time for this administration to act.” [link]
Yes, there are more sanctions we can add that would confront Pyongyang with a clear choice between disarmament and extinction. Banning North Korea from SWIFT seems especially likely to be effective, and overdue. For the safety of our citizens alone, we’re long overdue for a tourist travel ban. And because the evidence is overwhelming that North Korea sponsors terrorism, the State Department should at least stop lying to the American people and denying that.
I don’t blame President Obama for the fact that Kim Jong-un is a psychopath. I blame President Obama for not recognizing that Kim Jong-un is a psychopath, and for not recognizing the implications of that. Above all, I blame President Obama for not enforcing the law he signed in February, after the fourth nuke. Wasting eight critical years without agreeing on or implementing a North Korea policy may not stand out as one of this administration’s greatest foreign policy failures yet, but that’s only because it sits alongside his failure to support the Green Revolution in Iran, his non-response to the Syrian genocide, the fall of Anbar, the rise of ISIS, and a refugee crisis that threatens to destroy the European Union and its liberal social order.
No wonder Obama, sensing the weakness of his position, is now calling for “serious consequences” for North Korea. He holds the power to impose them now, but it sounds like he’s about to send Samantha Power back to the Security Council to bicker with the Chinese over the next resolution, too. He can enhance her bargaining power by sanctioning the Bank of China for laundering Kim Jong-un’s money, and by having someone in the Treasury Department leak a report that the Bank of Dandong is under investigation for the same. If we’re serious about avoiding war in Korea, we must be willing to shake the foundations of the Chinese banking system.
Park Geun-hye, on the other hand, gets it, however belatedly, and seems to realize exactly what’s at stake here. Her shrewd diplomatic and psychological warfare against Pyongyang has probably done far more damage to Kim Jong-un than anything Obama has done yet. She should now move beyond loudspeakers and open a second front in the information war for the hearts and minds of the North Korean people. As her opening act, as soon as the atmospheric conditions are favorable for good TV reception in Pyongyang, she should put Thae Yong-ho on the air to deliver a revolutionary manifesto to the Pyongyang elites. She should build a row of cell phone, AM radio, and TV towers on the mountaintops all along the DMZ. Then, she ought to get behind a guerrilla engagement strategy to undermine the regime’s control over the countryside.
For now, the calls in Seoul for nuclear armament and preemptive strikes are probably just talk, but they’ll continue to grow. The economic and security frameworks of the whole region are in greater danger than most of us realize.
As I said all along, the U.S. and South Korean election years almost guaranteed that this test would happen. I’ve also said that in the short term, sanctions would aggravate His Corpulency and force him to react. Anyone who knows anything at all about sanctions knows that they would take at least year or two to show significant impact, and that’s assuming they’re enforced. Unfortunately, they haven’t been — despite the fact that a string of high-profile defections has probably yielded more fresh financial intelligence about where Kim Jong-un’s money is than we’ve had in years. It’s long past time we used it.
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Update: To be clear here, I have no knowledge that the Bank of Dandong is under investigation or isn’t, but the BoD has been mentioned in previous reports as a holder of North Korean funds, and I expect to see more reporting in the coming weeks buttressing the case that they should be investigated.
Well, at least the nuke test will (hopefully) make it harder for the South Korean left to win the election next year and enact Sunshine Policy 2.0.
That this is an election year might have had something to do with this but I think Gordon Chang is correct when he claims that this test was done because Kim had a feeling of impunity on account of the present THAAD hysteria in China. Andrei Lankov’s latest column even asserts that the Chinese view THAAD and North Korean nuclear weapons as equivalent threats. This strategy will only cause South Koreans to rally around the flag and dispense with the delusion of a responsible China. Chinese Communists, ruining by the sword since 1949, are not used to persuasion and can only issue threats. Thus, China is doing more to contain itself than America ecer could or would do. See recent failures of theirs in Taiwan and Hong Kong. It seems as if anyone who has a choice in the matter is running from them as fast as they can. The sanctions will get tighter now and hopefully the primary money laundering concern designation will become final shortly. The downside of this is that we will be treated shortly to columns from the Bandows and Foster-Carters of the world who shall point and laugh like Nelson from The Simpsons at every North Korean outrage as they urge fatalism. This, we should never do. Oh, and my anti-North Korean screeds got 20 something up votes from the Chomskyites at The Guardian. That’s got to count for something right?
“She should build a row of cell phone, AM radio, and TV towers on the mountaintops all along the DMZ. Then, she ought to get behind a guerrilla engagment [sic] strategy to undermine the regime’s control over the countryside.”
Fantasy suggestions or basically a call for war. Because what do you think the NK response would be? Do you think they’re bluffing?
Tom:
1) As a nation-state defined by the Treaty of Westphalia model, sovereign / free South Korea, as led by Park Geun-hye, has every right to export information to any physical location in the known universe – if, of course, South Korean human assets have no uninvited physical presence on non-South Korean territory. Non-South Korean territory includes North Korea.
2) The Nork Empire has an active information export industry which includes South Korea as part of its literal target market. Additionally and historically, the Nork Empire has exported uninvited human assets to sovereign / free South Korea since King Little Fatso I assumed the position on His throne.
3) These facts matter because they then give South Korea the right to do these things itself. Obviously. Now, I don’t know that South Korea would send its people to the Nork Empire uninvited, but after the Nork Empire finally falls – the sooner the better – the history books and blogs will fill in the blanks.
4) When South Korea does NOT assertively present the truth to the Nork Empire as suggested in this piece, the Norkish Emperors clearly wage war on South Korea. The entire crew of the Cheonan, for example, would agree with this. If those killed could do so.
5) Nothing fantasy about Mr. Stanton’s suggestions if technology and economics allow for it.
6) I see no “call for war” in the suggestions above. Please explain generally how expression of truth is a “call for war”.
7) Unless I read you wrong, it looks like you believe the Nork Empire should control core South Korean foreign policy. If you do believe this, then please define the limits of this control:
depth, or how much control
scope generally, or how many other public / private aspects of South Korea should the Nork Empire control
This alone matters because Mr. Stanton addressed this very issue at length in a most unpleasant way:
https://freekorea.us/2016/09/01/how-kim-jong-un-can-still-win-the-korean-war-part-1/
8) Are you new to One Free Korea?
Erecting cell phone towers or other facilities for broadcast into North Korea is undoubtedly a large escalation, as this is something the Kim regime truly fears. The legality under int’l law for such move is clear–but since when has NK ever cared about that? If NK shells one of these facilities (a real possibility), ParkG.H. is virtually required to respond in kind. This would be a very dicey situation. I am guardedly pro-cell tower, but, well, I live here in S.K. If the towers started going up, things will get tense.