Zelensky plays his oil cards against Trump & Putin
Donald Trump has betrayed more American values and interests than my dog has hairs in January, but let’s pause on one subset of them–his aid cutoff to Ukraine, his stalling of sanctions against Russia, and his public blustering at Volodimir Zelensky that he had “no cards” to play. Well, Zelensky is playing them now, and I’m sure he’s having a good laugh at the expense of Trump and Putin somewhere.
The stupidity of Donald Trump and the incompetence of his advisors may yet be the salvation of our democracy. They nodded along when Trump, in a complete reversal of the isolationism he campaigned on, went to war against Iran with no plan, triggered a global energy crisis, and sank his approval rating deeper than the Iranian navy. Then, in his desperation to talk down oil prices and increase global supply, he relaxed sanctions on Russia and Iran (!) and invented peace talks with Iran that Iran says it isn’t having.
Now, as it turns out, Zelensky is showing Trump and Putin that he has some cards to play after all, by knocking out the oil terminal in Primorsk, the gas terminal in Ust-Luga, and with them, 40 percent of Russia’s oil exports and the peak oil windfall Putin was salivating for.
The logical follow-up targets for Zelensky are the already damaged export terminals in the Black Sea, more refineries, and more of the pumping stations that serve the pipelines. By forcing Russia to redeploy a shrinking inventory of air defense systems to cover targets in eleven time zones, Ukraine has learned to use Russia’s size against it. And by jeopardizing Trump’s political position, Zelensky has a card to play to demand more Patriot missiles, while offering the U.S. and its Gulf state allies more of the drone interceptors it manufactures as a more cost-effective substitute.
Meanwhile, EU nations that have no love for Donald Trump since his inexplicably idiotic threats against Greenland are too busy seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers and driving up the cost of its smuggled oil to help unfuck Trump’s mess in the Strait of Hormuz. That will force India and China to compete for other sources of oil and keep prices high–hurting Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping.
And I should also mention–because this blog is still nominally about Korea–Kim Jong-un.
A month ago, I figured that the Ukrainians had begun using some new weapon with a larger warhead to knock out Russian arms factories, pumping stations, and other strategic targets. They may or may not be the Flamingo, the Hrim-2, or some new version of the Neptune. They can’t be the small propeller-driven drones Ukraine used to plink Russian refineries in 2025. These new weapons, whatever they are, are getting through and doing more damage–whether it’s because they’re faster or there are too many of them to shoot down. I look forward to seeing the effects on Russia’s economy, war production, and morale in the coming year.
And as for us, what a layer cake of stupid we’ve become.