PSI Exercises in the Sea of Japan, er, East Sea
Whatever you call that particular body of water, interesting things are afloat on its troubled surface. James Brooke has this fascinating piece in the NYT, and it’s jam-packed with interesting tidbits about things that really matter:
“We are sending a signal to everybody who wants to traffic weapons of mass destruction that we have zero tolerance for that, ” John R. Bolton, United States Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, told a group of 50 reporters standing in light rain on the Japan Coast Guard Patrol Boat Izu.
Mr. Bolton, a leading State Department hawk, is considered a candidate for the post of National Security Advisor in a second Bush Administration. Today’s exercise, featuring, nine ships, seven helicopters, and several speed boats filled with commando may offer a taste of a future, more hardline American policy on North Korea.
Mr. Bolton is the architect of the Proliferation Security Initiative, a 15-month-old loose coalition of 60 countries working to curb trafficking in materials for weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.
Bolton as National Security Advisor? Wow. In a previous interview with the New York Times, Bolton was asked how he thought we could solve the North Korean nuclear crisis. He held up a copy of Nicholas Eberstadt’s “The End of North Korea.” So Bolton is my boy, as if there weren’t reason enough for me to be sweating this election. And you have to admit, it’s awfully interesting that a State Department guy was sent out to talk to the press for this piece of military theater. Whoever sent John “Human Scum” Bolton must have known that he’d speak the truth as he sees it.
How did this guy ever end up in the State Department?
While planned months ago, the three-day exercise, which is hosted by Japan and ends Wednesday, seems to hint of a greater American stress on sanctions against North Korea if President Bush is re-elected next week.
While documents relating to the drill made no mention of North Korea, about 600 miles west of here, Mr. Bolton had no such compunctions while speaking in an interview as a United States Navy frigate, the USS Vandegrift, churned the Pacific waters nearby.
‘There is no doubt that North Korea is the pre-eminent proliferator of ballistic missile technology,’ the mustachioed Mr. Bolton said in the officers’ mess. ‘The currency it earns from weapons and drugs sales internationally goes to financing their nuclear weapons program.’
Neither Bolton nor the Japanese were shy about using the “s” word, either:
Sanctions are the stick that Washington wields to push Pyongyang to participate in six-nation talks designed to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and to draw the xenophobic communist nation into the world community. In threatening sanctions, the United States has an ally in Japan, a nation still seething over revelations two years ago that North Korea kidnapped dozens of Japanese in the 1970’s.
“A time limit is necessary at some point, and we must consider such options as sanctions,” Japan’s conservative new Foreign Minister, Nobutaka Machimura, told Japan’s business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun last week.
But even without sanctions, Japan’s trade from North Korea has plummeted:
During the first eight months of this year, Japan’s bilateral trade with North Korea has dropped to $155 million, 17 percent the level of the same period last year. Even without sanctions, North Korea fell this year to 98th place in the rank of Japan’s worldwide exports.
The point that gives me pause is the timing, right before President Bush may want to shore up conservative votes–like, say, mine. However, if he really thinks Sunshine diplomacy is the way to get us out of this crisis, what he’s doing now seems pretty inconsistent with that. It’s also quite possible that Bush had already calculated that he didn’t want to raise tensions with North Korea excessively before the elections. That means saber-rattling but no dramatic announcements of policy shifts, while paving the way for one later in November.
If he wins, that is.
Contrast Brooke’s view of Japan’s stance with that of The Washington Post, as reported by its resident underachiever, Glenn Kessler:
A planned September session of the six-nation talks was scrapped after North Korea refused to show up, citing what it described as the administration’s “hostile policy.” But while Powell won support from Japan, China and South Korea during his trip for a resumption of talks, the conflicting statements suggested the effort to disarm North Korea was in disarray because of a growing divide among key U.S. allies over how to structure an opening bid to North Korea. South Korea and Japan have proposed to provide fuel oil immediately if Pyongyang commits to freezing and ultimately dismantling its programs. But Washington has maintained that it would provide benefits, such as a security guarantee, only after North Korea discloses and allows the verification of the full extent of its programs.