Stratfor: “Not If, But When” NK Will Collapse

Prediction is a dangerous business, but Stratfor is saying it’s a sure thing:

Meanwhile, signs of rot in the North Korean police state continue to appear. These include more crime, especially burglary and robbery. There’s more corruption, with even some secret police (the core force in keeping the communists in power) taking bribes. Discipline continues to decline in the army, as does readiness (because of little training with heavy equipment, and lack of spare parts for maintenance.) It’s looking more and more like Eastern Europe two decades ago. It’s not a question of if the north will collapse, but when. . . .

In the north, the government is trying to re-establish the food rationing system it had to abandon in 2002. The rationing system began to fall apart in the 1990s, as the agricultural sector of the economy collapsed, and the north had to rely on foreign aid to feed nearly half the population. The foreign aid groups refused to just turn the food over to the North Korean government, because of earlier diversion of such food from the needy to the military and export (to earn money for weapons programs). The new rationing system will give the government more political control in the event of unrest, and is made possible by a good crop this year. If there are problems in a city or rural area, the government can cut off food and send in more police.

Sending in troops may not work, as these are largely conscripts, and not enthusiastic
about attacking civilians. Food may turn out to be a decisive weapon up north, where a free market (since 2002) has driven up prices so that only a minority of entrepreneurs and senior government employees) can afford to buy it, and everyone else must scrounge, or get a handout from the government.

Maybe and hopefully, but shouldn’t we seek to shape the conditions of collapse and the political forces that survive the regime’s collapse? As with our reactive policies in the South, I see us as a hostage to events we believe to be beyond our control. And as I argued here a year ago, I see plenty of things we can do to hasten this process.