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April 2, 2008

Hill expects N. Korean declaration ‘in the next few days.’

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said Wednesday that Washington was waiting for a North Korean move “in the next few days” to end an impasse over Pyongyang’s promise to provide a complete declaration of its nuclear programs. Washington says the North so far failed to do so, missing a deadline that expired at the end of last year. Hill said the U.S. had hoped to resolve the issue by the end of March, which did not happen. “We...

Categories Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks
April 1, 2008

Oh, You Meant Those Nuclear Scientists in Syria ….

You have to wonder what Chris Hill thought this inspired move would accomplish, other than to put  intelligence sources and methods at risk:  The U.S. in recent bilateral talks reportedly gave Pyongyang a list of North Korean officials involved in the supply of nuclear technology to Syria, a suspicion the North denies. A high-level diplomatic source on Monday said that the U.S. obtained the list of officials including nuclear engineers, who were involved in the supply of nuclear technology to...

Categories Appeasement/Proliferation/Six-Party Talks/U.S. Politics
March 31, 2008

Kathleen Stephens: The Wrong Person for the Job

A  few months ago, the Korean press reported that State had submitted the name of Kathleen Stephens to be the next U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, to replace the competent and affable  Alexander Vershbow.  At the time, I did not have strong opinions about Ms. Stephens’s fitness for that position.  Further research has convinced me that Ms. Stephens, though well qualified for the job and apparently a perfectly fine person, is the wrong person to be our next Ambassador to...

Categories Appeasement/Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks/U.S. & Korea/Washington Views
March 24, 2008

WaPo Columnist Reveals NK-Syria Nuclear Agreement

In yesterday’s Washington Post, David Ignatius wrote a column pining for  a “breakthrough” in Chris Hill’s failed Agreed Framework 2.0.  Ignatius defines that as getting our hands on 30-40 kilograms of North Korean plutonium, which happens to  coincide with  North Korea’s own  low-range estimate.  Hill has been eager to accept this lower figure in the interests of declaring victory, although some U.S. estimates have put the actual figure closer to 50 kilograms.  The discrepancy is enough for a couple of...

Categories Diplomacy/Proliferation/Six-Party Talks/WMD
March 23, 2008

I Know a Dead Parrot When I See One

This  parrot is no more.  It has ceased to be.  It has expired and gone to meet its maker.  This … is a late parrot.  It’s a stiff.  Bereft of life, it rests in peace.  If you hadn’t nailed it to the perch, it would be pushing up the daisies.  It’s  run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible.  This … is an ex-parrot! — John Cleese, Monty Python’s “The Dead Parrot Sketch“ I confess to being less interested...

Categories Proliferation/Six-Party Talks
March 16, 2008

Chinese Academic: Accept North Korea as a Nuclear Power

China has a habit of using academics and scholars to float foreign policy trial balloons. Dingli Shen, a Professor and Executive Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, recently visited North Korea, something he would not have done unless he spoke for at least a part of the Chinese government. Shen, a physicist and a former Professor of “American Studies,” has also acted as a quasi-governmental mouthpiece on North Korea here and here. Here’s what now: The...

Categories China/China & Korea/Six-Party Talks
March 15, 2008

Chris Hill Resignation Watch

The Edsel has thrown a rod, so today, we inaugurate a new OFK feature, where I’ll be (I hope) regularly updating you on any hints that Christopher Hill will take responsibility for the increasingly undeniable failure of Agreed Framework 2.0. Now, I should note that this entire feature is pretty much baseless, grounded entirely on my own speculation, gossip that’s probably false, and the fact that it would make perfect sense. Hey, I can’t change history and I can’t predict...

Categories Six-Party Talks
March 14, 2008

Six Two-Party Talks Update: So Far, So Not Bad

Thus far, Chris Hill has failed to sell Hawaii to the North Koreans for a string of beads, though not for lack of effort. This should make you sad, of course, because it’s bad for peace, and because ancient Japanese maps prove that Hawaii is North Korean. Top U.S. and North Korean nuclear negotiators tried Thursday to resolve a snag holding up the six-way process for ending Pyongyang’s nuclear programs, and while the U.S. envoy reported progress, it fell short...

Categories Appeasement/Six-Party Talks
March 11, 2008

Six Two Party Talks: Doubling Down a Bad Bet?

Back on February 23rd, I predicted that we’d see the first signs that the Bush Administration was losing patience with North Korea’s stall tactics. I also predicted that this recognition would amount to little in practice. Things seems to be turning out pretty much as expected. United States Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow said … there is a ‘sense of impatience building up’ among participants in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program over the long delay by...

Categories Appeasement/Proliferation/Six-Party Talks
March 11, 2008

I Have a Bad Feeling ….

The chief U.S. and North Korean nuclear negotiators will meet this week in Geneva to seek a breakthrough in stalled disarmament talks, news reports said Tuesday. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill was to meet North Korean Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan during a visit to the Swiss city Thursday and Friday, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported from Washington, citing sources there it did not identify. [AP, via IHT] It’s rumored that Chris Hill will offer the North...

Categories Six-Party Talks
March 8, 2008

Need me to translate that for you?

Top U.S. nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill said Thursday it is important for North Korea to submit a full and complete declaration of its nuclear activity as required under a six-party deal by the end of this month.   ”It’s important we’ll get through this declaration in March. There is no drop-dead deadline, but it is important to try to get through this in March because we’re running out of time,” Hill said, referring to the change in the U.S. administration next...

Categories Six-Party Talks
March 8, 2008

Hill: Gas Chambers, Concentration Camps, and Refugee Massacres No Impediment to Full Diplomatic Relations After All

Last February, just after Chris Hill rolled out that  landmark achievement called Agreed Framework 2.0 — how is that working out, by the way? —  he went to Congress to defend  his amorphous  cloud of ether  against some obvious questions about how the North Koreans might interpret it and  what laws the agreement might actually break in its application.  You mentioned certain laws of ours that reflect human rights issues and humanitarian law. I can assure you that any agreement...

Categories Appeasement/Human Rights/Six-Party Talks
February 29, 2008

Do Not Resuscitate

You know it’s time for Plan B when even the New York Times deems Plan A comatose. The concert would have had even more significance if it could have celebrated continuing progress toward shuttering North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. That effort unfortunately has stalled, and the fault — at least this time — is undeniably Pyongyang’s. [….] North Korea has said it would produce the accounting, but first it wants Washington to remove it from the list of state sponsors...

Categories Diplomacy/Media Criticism/Six-Party Talks
February 23, 2008

Agreed Framework 2.0: The Shelf Life of Happy Talk

There are probably several good reasons I’ve never really enjoyed a musical except while looking at the lovely France Nuyen, who does not sing. If legacy was its object, Agreed Framework 2.0 won’t be a positive contribution to one. President Bush must know this, or he would have mentioned it in his State of the Union speech. Events turned against the agreement during the last quarter of 2007: specifically Syria, uranium, North Korea’s false declaration, and its failure to give...

Categories Proliferation/Six-Party Talks
February 20, 2008

Hill Denies Nukes Talks Stalemated, Larry Craig Still Not Gay

One day, I must cease picking on poor Larry Craig. Maybe tomorrow. Though Hill denies the obvious, at least for now, he’s sticking to his guns on the North Korean declaration: But Hill said that is not good enough for the “complete and correct declaration” that was promised at the arms talks. “We cannot pretend that activities don’t exist when we know that the activities have existed,” he said, without giving specifics. [IHT] North Korea also continues to deny any...

Categories Six-Party Talks
February 15, 2008

More Bush Loyalists Criticizing His N. Korea Policy

It’s not that surprising to hear the Japanese sounding disgruntled about the failure of Agreed Framework 2.0, but dissent from Bush Administration loyalists is less expected and more significant. I don’t think it’s fair to call Michael Green or (especially) Victor Cha opponents or skeptics of Agreed Framework 2.0 itself, but previously, they had been stalwart defenders of the current strategy. The fact that they are even gently criticizing Secretary Rice and Ambassador Hill for their spinelessness in the face...

Categories Appeasement/Diplomacy/Six-Party Talks/Washington Views
February 14, 2008

An Anniversary, But Nothing to Celebrate

Yesterday was the one-year anniversary of Agreed Framework 2.0. So, how is that working out? North Korea threatened Friday to block progress in the six-party talks over its nuclear programs, claiming efforts by U.S. hardliners to disrupt dialogue with Pyongyang could aggravate the current standoff. The North also said it will have no choice but to take a certain measure “provided the U.S. warmongers keep taking a tough stance” against the communist state. The six-party talks hit a snag as...

Categories Six-Party Talks
February 10, 2008

Yonhap: N. Korea Using Heavy Fuel Oil for Military Exercises

[Update: I have to say that my doubts about this one, as expressed by my question below about refining, are considerable. Heavy fuel oil is nearly as thick as asphalt, not something I’d think could be refined into lighter, higher octane products cheaply. Bruce Klingner’s comment below adds to those doubts, and I offer a more plausible explanation. As with every other question about the diversion of aid to North Korea — and here is yet another such question —...

Categories "United" Nations/Six-Party Talks