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July 12, 2006

Sticker Shock: A Post-USFK South Korea Must Do Less for More

A few days ago, the Marmot linked this RAND report on South Korea’s Defense Reform Plan (DRP). The report starts with some alarming disclaimers: it could not access much of the ROK MND’s classified information on strength levels or weapons systems, and the author has no experience (!) analyzing defense budget requests. Nonetheless, the author was able to pull together enough knowable facts to convince me that the DRP will come unglued. How fast? Without a national emergency, I give...

Categories An Alliance?/Anti-Americanism/NK Economics/Technology/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Military
July 11, 2006

Don Kirk on North Korea’s Divide-and-Rule Coup; Plus, Why the T-Dong 2 Failed

Read it yourself, but I’ll tempt you with his strong close: These differences alone reveal the gulf between South Korea and the US. The North Korean missile shots have landed on target, widening the rift, deepening the discord, resurrecting the specter of the ancient Japanese foe. There may be ways to postpone a widening crisis, but no foreseeable way out.

Categories An Alliance?/Technology/U.S. & Korea/WMD
July 10, 2006

The Death of an Alliance, Part 42

China’s newest satellite won’t back sanctions against North Korea, after the North lobbed seven missiles into the Sea of Japan. The United States is actively supporting a Japanese-drafted sanctions resolution at the U.N. China is opposing it. The lines have been drawn, sides have been chosen. Seoul really didn’t even need to take part in this “camp diplomacy,” but it has. It’s yet another reason to ask: why do we provide the defense for a nation that’s neutral at best,...

Categories An Alliance?/China & Korea/U.S. & Korea/WMD
July 10, 2006

Seoul’s FTA Losing Streak

The South Korean government continues its losing streak in the FTA debate, for good or for ill. On the good side, it has realized that it stands no chance of including North Korean-made Kaesong products in the wake of Kim Jong Il’s missile tests. On the not-as-good side, the anti-FTA side, most of it comprised of radical leftists, has managed to make opposition to the FTA the new focus of anti-Americanism in Korea, while Roh’s administration failed to confront its...

Categories Anti-Americanism/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea
July 9, 2006

Or Else, What?

Update: Or else, we’ll give you a time-out! Even a very angry letter seems too much for the “United” Nations, an institution whose very name moves it into laughingstock territory these days. South Korea nearly managed to say nothing for a whole week, but then broke its silence long enough to play the role of dutiful North Korean enabler and Chinese lap-dog, opposing any binding sanctions. Americans are entitled to wonder why their soldiers are in harm’s way to protect...

Categories "United" Nations/Appeasement/China & Korea/Diplomacy/Japan & Korea/U.S. & Korea
July 5, 2006

Hey! Over Here!

I suspect South Korea will be in political paralysis and disarray for at least several days with respect to the future of the Sunshine Policy. Clearly, it’s much harder to justify changing North Korea though unconditional aid than it was last week. Whether Roh still clings to his demand to keep Kaesong in the FTA will be a crucial test. After billions in aid, South Korea still lacked the influence to get back its kidnapped citizens, reduce tensions along the...

Categories Appeasement/Japan & Korea/Korean Politics/U.S. & Korea
June 28, 2006

The End of the Rainbow

Really, this piece by Michael O’Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki is well reasoned and said. Even if I disagree with much of it, I think they have a good grasp of which threats we ought to be worrying about. The debate about whether regime change would work is competely speculative until we actually try it in earnest, of course. At this point, they had me: [T]he administration should build its North Korea policy around the notion that we need to present...

Categories Abductions/Appeasement/China/China & Korea/Counterfeiting/Diplomacy/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea
June 28, 2006

It’s About Damn Time

… Korea started paying the cost of its own defense. Which is why the most dovish South Korean president ever is forced to seek a very large increase in defense spending: South Korea’s defense ministry said yesterday that it has requested a 9.9 percent increase in the defense budget for 2007. …. In a proposal submitted to the Ministry of Planning and Budget, the military seeks to secure 24.75 trillion won ($25 billion) for the coming year, up from a...

Categories An Alliance?/ROK Military/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Military
June 28, 2006

Balbina Hwang Nominated to Key Post at State

Balbina Y. Hwang was nominated as a special assistant to Christopher Hill, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. …. On issues pertaining to North Korea, the analyst made clear that a hardline stance would continue to be be taken. She said diplomacy would stand at the forefront of dealings with the North, but the North Korean nuclear issue could only be resolved through pressure on Pyongyang. She said Washington’s open criticism of the North’s human rights...

Categories Diplomacy/U.S. & Korea/Washington Views
June 27, 2006

The Law of the Street

Look what happened yesterday when the Korean government tried to engage its citizens in public discourse on a Free Trade Agreement with the United States. The hearing, organized by the Trade Ministry, had just begun at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry building in central Seoul when the protesters interrupted a speech by Kim Jong-hoon, Korea’s chief negotiator, in its opening moments. Catcalls rained down on Mr. Kim, and several protesters approached the podium, scuffling with government officials who...

Categories Censorship/Democracy/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea
June 27, 2006

A Sheep Among Wolves

A top official from the National Security Council on Wednesday threw his weight behind a change in Korea’s geopolitical strategy away from what he called the “Cold War camp diplomacy” in East Asia, pitting a northern alliance of North Korea, China and Russia against the southern alliance of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. “In future, Korea will break from the framework of confrontation and switch to open security cooperation,” the official said. “As a dynamic actor, Korea will play...

Categories An Alliance?/China & Korea/Geopolitics/U.S. & Korea
June 27, 2006

Report: N. Koreans Will Allow Lefkowitz into Kaesong

If true, interesting. He should be prepared for an ambush before dozens of cameras, since recent visits make it apparent that North Korean guides at Kaesong are pre-loaded with approved harangues. The disadvantage of those is that the haranguer can’t adapt flexibly to questions like, “have you ever wanted to wander the streets of Rome, eat a mango, hear reggae, drive, or vote against the President?” Still, Lefkowitz will be set up as the overdog, and should not underestimate the...

Categories Appeasement/Democracy/NK Economics/U.S. & Korea/Uncategorized
June 21, 2006

Newt: Destroy NK Missile on the Ground

[Update: John Bolton has the quote of the week: “You don’t normally engage in conversations by threatening to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles ….”] National Review has two pieces today on North Korea’s satellite ransom theater possible missile test. The editors argue, as I did here, that the United States should shoot down the missile if the North Koreans launch it. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, no doubt motivated by a desire to make me look like a moderate, goes further:...

Categories NK Military/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Military/WMD
June 20, 2006

The End of Sunshine?

[Update 6/20: As predicted, the North Koreans aren’t taking this well.] “We have the right to speak.” — North Korean government official, talking about South Korean politics Has international pressure has finally forced South Korea to abandon years of official apathy about the phobocracy that is North Korea? Finally, South Korea declares, it will ask the North to treat the lives of its people with a modicum of respect.

Categories Activism/Europe/Human Rights/Japan/Japan & Korea/Korean Politics/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Military/Uncategorized
June 20, 2006

Shenyang Four Three Update

Several days ago, I reported that the Shenyang Four would be allowed to leave China safely. This latest report doesn’t directly contradict that, but … A diplomatic source in Seoul said yesterday the United States will accept three of four North Korean asylum-seekers now in the U.S. Consulate General in Shenyang, China. The source said Washington had informed Seoul of the decision. The four North Koreans first entered the South Korean diplomatic premises in that city, but on May 6...

Categories China/Defectors/Human Rights/Refugees/U.S. & Korea
June 19, 2006

Please, Please, Please Test It!

Plenty of people have asked me if Kim Jong Il will test a long-range Taepodong II missile, and really, I have no more idea that anyone else this side of the Taedong. On one hand, the North Koreans are desperate for some attention. They’re running out of money and friends, and they’ve added liquid fuel to a rocket, that’s corrosive to the fuel and oxidizer tanks and is thus more than an empty gesture. On the other hand, North Korea...

Categories NK Military/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Military/WMD
June 17, 2006

Why He Took Those Pictures

The U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, Alexander Vershbow, has paid a very public visit to the Kaesong Industrial Park, and the initial signs are good. Vershbow, a man who seeks the public debate his predecessors so often avoided, has not shied from stating some rather blunt views about North Korea. Thus, the fact that the North Koreans allowed his visit to go forward at all is surprising. Best of all, Vershbow snooped around, took pictures, and even seems to have...

Categories Appeasement/Diplomacy/Human Rights/NK Economics/Technology/U.S. & Korea/U.S. Law/Uncategorized/WMD