Links for 23 Oct 07

* John Bolton is now actively lobbying against Agreed Framework 2.0, drawing dozens of GOP congressmen  to speeches he’s giving to influential policy groups (ht: Evan).  His efforts appear to have gained new traction with the Syria revelations, and the Administration’s inordinate secrecy from Congress about those revelations probably isn’t doing any good for congressional relations (but may be fueling suspicions).  Yes, Bolton probably suspects that his enemies in the State Department torpedoed his confirmation, and he probably holds a...

The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il

[Updated below] We often hear reports that China has curtailed or cut aid to the North Korean regime. I’ve usually been skeptical of those reports because I believe that Kim Jong Il’s arch-patron China wants us to believe that it’s being “helpful” in disarming North Korea of its nuclear programs, but actually considers it a useful distraction for American power in the region. Now, a new report claims that China is holding up cross-border rail traffic to the North over...

Fighting Hard Power With Soft: Sanctions, Iran, and Burma

Burma’s generals, confident that they have reestablished the rule of terror, have just relaxed their  curfews and bans on public assemblies.  It’s exceedingly depressing to write about yet another ongoing atrocity that no one has the courage or vision to really fight, and Burma is another of those atrocities.  If the Administration thinks that modest sanctions like these will end the slaughter, it’s fooling no one: The president directed the government to freeze any U.S.-controlled assets held by 11 senior...

Links for 15 Oct 07

*   North Korea is  building or repairing the fences around its nuclear test site in the northeast.   What  reports like these don’t mention, however, is that directly to the northeast of that test site lies  Camp 16, one of North Korea’s more horrendous concentration camps.  And  if the  Daily NK’s December 2006  report of a mass escape is true, it might be that the North Koreans are actually repairing the camp’s fences, not the test sites.  Hopefully, an intrepid...

NYT: It Was a Reactor

Israel’s air attack on Syria last month was directed against a site that Israeli and American intelligence analysts judged was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, apparently modeled on one North Korea has used to create its stockpile of nuclear weapons fuel, according to American and foreign officials with access to the intelligence reports.  [N.Y. Times, David Sanger and Mark Mazzetti] Even among other journalists who cover this story and the White House, Sanger is well known for having good sources...

Links for 12 Oct 07

*   Irrational Exhuberance, via the AFP’s P. Parameswaran:  “A team of US experts left Tuesday for North Korea to disable the hardline communist state’s nuclear weapons arsenal in a crucial phase of a six-nation disarmament pact.”  Mr. Parameswaran is a good enough fellow, but  the first sentence of his  report is absolutely false.  Not only are U.S. experts not on their way to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, North Korea has yet to declare what, specifically, that arsenal consists...

Summit Perceptions

So what will be the enduring  effect of the meeting between Roh Moo Hyun and Kim Jong Il?  I could speculate, but others have already done that.  Simply read the divergent brands and ask yourself:  who is better informed and grounded in reality:  a semi-random sampling of ordinary  North Koreans, or a New York Times reporter?  (Big hint:  it’s Norimitsu Oniishi, who is almost always over his head when he strays beyond culture and fluff stories).   I’ll just observe that...

The Last Chance

Does this sound like a country that’s made the decision to give up its nuclear arsenal? The North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper ran a lengthy editorial to mark the anniversary, imploring the poverty-stricken population of 23 million to rally around Kim, the official Korean Central News Agency said. “Never forgettable are acclamations of October, 2006, when we shouted hurrah again and again at the top of our voices in admiration of General Kim Jong Il who unfolded an eternally clear...

Who Cares About Politicizing Intelligence Now?

Washington was plunged into sleepy apathy this week as ABC News reported that the  Bush Administration  ingored, then  failed to act on intelligence about  nuclear proliferation and potential terrorism that could have endangered  millions of lives.  The report claims that the Secretary of State and the President  received credible reports that North Korea transferred nuclear technology to Syria,  but suppressed the information  to save a troubled diplomatic deal, and even  sought to tip  the Syrians off.  The latest report follows...

Define “All”

Update:   A reader was kind enough to send a copy of the latest six-party joint statement, which you can read here.   Some of the key langugage: 2. The DPRK agreed to provide a complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs in accordance with the February 13 agreement by 31 December 2007. A deadline.  I like deadlines.  But  this adds no clarity  that nuclear “programs” means nuclear “weapons,” and nothing about inspection or verification beyond Yongbyon. 3. The...

The Rangoon Autumn

Updates below: 9/21:   Original post, background of the protests.  9/22:  Monks  march to  Aung San Suu Syi’s home in record downpour; 10,000 protest in Mandalay. 9/23:  Protests hit 8 cities; Rangoon turnout at 20,000; World leaders speak out against use of force to quell protests, but the U.N. is silent. 9/24:  Rangoon protests draw 100,000; Their hold on power seriously threatened, junta generals threaten to use force; Bush  to announce new sanctions  before U.N. General Assembly; Burmese entertainers join the opposition....

Some USFK Stats and History

A few days ago, a reader asked me how much the presence of the USFK cost American taxpayers.  This is a research project I’ve taken on before, only to be confronted by few answers from credible sources.  You’re about to see what I mean here. Writing for the Nautilus Institute, Selig Harrison claimed in 2001 that the annual cost was $42 billion per year.   Another Nautilus alum,  Doug Bandow, claimed in his recent Korea book  that withdrawing from the...

Sunday Times: Israelis Seized N. Korean ‘Nuclear Material’ in Syria

I wonder how Chris Hill is going to talk his way out of this one: Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem. The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say. They confirmed that samples taken from Syria...

We must be smoking what they’re growing

North Korea was dropped from the U.S. list of countries producing illicit drugs, a sign of further relief of tensions between the two countries. “North Korea is not affecting the United States as much as the requirements on the list,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christy McCampbell said on Sept. 17 in Washington, according to a transcript of her speech on the State Department Web site. [Bloomberg] And that decision is based on what? On absolutely nothing but the interests...

Have Fun Spending That $20 Million in Hell

Mullah Abdullah Jan, the Taliban commander who led the kidnappings of 23 Korean hostages in Afghanistan, was killed in an air strike by U.S. forces.  U.S. forces launched an airstrike on a house in Ghazni province where a council of Taliban commanders was meeting on Monday night, the Associated Press reported.  Twelve Taliban leaders were killed including Abdullah, the commander of Qarabagh district in Ghazni, AP said on Tuesday, citing Ghazni provincial police chief Ali Shah Ahmadzai. Abdullah was believed...

Q&A With Professor Andrei Lankov: On Changing North Korea

[OFK: This post is a follow-up Q&A to my review of Professor Andrei Lankov’s new book, “.” Prof. Lankov is a lecturer at the Australian National University, now on leave and teaching at Kookmin University. You can see more of Prof. Lankov’s books here, and you can find plenty more of his work linked on this blog. Two of his more notable recent articles include “The Natural Death of North Korean Stalinism” and “How to Topple Kim Jong Il.”] Q....

Chaos Conquers North Korea

I had really wanted to publish  a Q&A with Professor Andrei Lankov this morning, but since Yahoo’s e-mail service has gone from bad to worse, it’s simply not possible for me to even open up my e-mail to pull up his responses.  So spread the word:  Yahoo! mail stinks.  Meanwhile, there’s a wave of fresh evidence, most of it via the Daily NK, to support Lankov’s thesis that North Korea can’t control the spread of chaos  or the erosion of...

The Orchard File: What are North Korea and Syria up to?

In the wake of the first reports about a reported Israeli air strike in  Syria, a  new crop  of reports  has considerably muddied facts that initially had seemed much clearer.  Journalistic politics is certainly a part of the problem.  Some of the reports are alarming, while others seek to downplay, and anyone who claims to be objective about war, diplomacy, and WMD today  is lying.  You probably know where I stand on Agreed Framework 2.0 by now.  If the more...