North Korea Calls Off “Arirang”

No Arirang  for you.  North Korea has suspended its large-scale gymnastic and artistic performance due to damage from recent heavy rains, the country’s state media reported Monday. “It has now become hard to continue the performance as working people in different parts of the country are all out to recover from the flood damage these days,” the Korean Central News Agency said. “The performance is expected to be staged again after the flood damage is cleared away.” The “Arirang” festival,...

Did I Just Hear North Korea Renege Again?

A Japanese newspaper on Saturday said North Korea insisted in disarmament talks this month that it would only declare and disable three nuclear facilities — none of them with atomic weapons. All three sites are in the immediate vicinity of the nearly used-up Yongbyon reactor, which North Korea finally shut down (but never disabled) last month, several months after  the date it  had agreed to do so.   You can see  Google Earth images of some of those facilities  here. But...

“Famine in North Korea”: An Interactive Review (3 of 3)

[OFK:  In this post, Marcus Noland and Stephan Haggard respond to  Part 1 and Part 2 of my  review of their book, “Famine in North Korea:  Markets, Aid, and Reform.”] Josh Stanton has written by far the most thoughtful and cogent analysis of Famine in North Korea that we have seen to date. Stanton’s review is generous, but also raises important questions about virtually all elements of our analysis. In the interest of furthering both scholarly and policy debate, we...

Links for 8/24: OFK Forecast, A Family’s Escape, Flood Updates, Nuke Talks ‘Positive’ But Stalled

More Sunshine, But Overcast Later:   The Daily NK tracks the GNP’s North Korea policy.  I could more credibly  claim to do eye surgery with a whipsaw than say just what that policy is today, but good for them for taking that one on.  Although things can change very quickly in South Korean politics, Lee Myung Bak is clearly a heavy favorite to win.  In the increasingly likely event of Lee’s inauguration, I don’t expect that U.S.-ROK relations, or North-South...

“Famine in North Korea:” An Interactive Review (2 of 3)

[Part I is here.]   IV.  Aid We will probably never know how many people died in North Korea’s last Great Famine, but can we prevent the next one?  This regime  seems so  indifferent to the suffering of its people — even  determined to perpetuate it — that well-meaning aid agencies have  been forced to compromise basic humanitarian norms.  Those compromises are understandable, but the standards were meant to keep food from being used as a political weapon.  The compromises...

“Famine in North Korea:” An Interactive Review (1 of 3)

The time stamp on this post may be the most telling part of it, for I first got my hands on Marcus Noland and Stephan Haggard’s “Famine in North Korea:  Markets, Aid, and Reform” back in late March.  The intervening months have been very busy for me, and the book raised more points of discussion than I can cover here.  Noland and Haggard  are two of the finest, most respected scholars of all things North Korean and economic, and their...

Ban Ki Moon’s ‘Quiet Diplomacy’ Fails the North Korean People and the U.N., Again

Not only is the UNDP scandal  not going away, it’s confirming how little has changed with both the U.N. and Ban Ki Moon.  For the U.N., corruption and cronyism still triumph over accountability.  For Ban, the fear of offending Kim Jong Il and of controversy in general to be the guide that principle and promises of reform aren’t.   A pattern emerges in which (1) Ban is confronted with U.N. inefficiency and corruption; (2) Ban promises bold reforms; (3) Ban engages...

The Shenyang Six Are Freed

Do you still remember their story, the arrest of Adrian Hong and the courageous LiNK activists, and the shame on our Consul General in Shenyang?  I  had given up all hope, but others did not, and their persistence  has been  repaid with six lives.    WASHINGTON, D.C., Aug. 20 – Liberty in North Korea (LiNK) today announced that six North Korean refugees imprisoned by Chinese authorities last December were recently released from a prison in Shenyang. The six – which...

North Korea’s Floods: The Next Lost Opportunity

The secrecy of North Korea’s regime  and the recency of the floods mean that we should be wary of estimates we hear about the severity of the damage they caused, and that goes double for some of the  detailed  statistical compilations the papers are printing.   We do know  there  were fatalies; South Koreans have found corpses  that were  washed downstream across the DMZ.  Beyond that, things are less certain.  North Korea officially claims that the floods killed 300  people and...

WSJ: ROK-U.S. FTA to Die a Quiet Death

If the Wall Street Journal says the FTA is now dead, it must be so: Only two months after pressuring Seoul to insert labor and environmental concessions, House Democrats now say they won’t approve the FTA in any case. [WSJ] But if the WSJ says “House Democrats” say it, is it necessarily so? This news reaches us via Brendan Carr, whose post on the subject will do just as well if you’re not a WSJ subscriber. His blog is a...

Who Changed Who?

There must be something contagious in Korea. The South  Korean Embassy has put out the  text of the agreed  “rules” for the upcoming delivery of new instructions to southern cadres North-South summit, which a friend graciously sent me.  It’s good fodder for reflecting on the Sunshine Policy, the legacy of which leftist President Roh Moo Hyun and tyrant Kim Jong Il would have us celebrate with them.  So what is there to celebrate? If there’s a new spirit of openness...

God Has a Veto

[Update 8/18:   Called it:  “The two Koreas on Saturday agreed to reschedule the inter-Korean summit slated for late August in Pyongyang to Oct. 2-4 after North Korea requested a delay because of its extensive flood damage, the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said.”]   Would Kim Jong Il host a summit in Pyongyang if he couldn’t make a propaganda spectacle of the visit?  Yesterday, I relayed the latest reports of serious flooding North Korea that have reportedly killed hundreds...

For Whom Do They Speak?

It’s not assured that the South Korean public will see President Roh’s going-out-of-business summit for what it is, but if it does not, it won’t be because South Koreans didn’t hear from enough cooler heads about  it.  Richardson presents a broad sampling of reaction from the  (mostly conservative) Korean papers that dominate their country’s market.   Most  share a  skeptical  view and agree on that this is an obvious,  cynical election-year  ploy.  There isn’t anything Roh is proposing to do in...

Valor, and The Better Part of It

There are some things that should be too obvious to be missed by nearly everyone, and here is one of them:  the only villains of the Afghan hostage crisis are the Taliban.  It may be human nature to seek out demons, heroes, and martyrs, including phantom ones.  South Korea’s masters of public manipulation have certainly offered the South Korean people a wide choice of villains, and that  choice occasionally even includes the Taliban.  As for heroes, I certainly don’t see...

The Going-Out-of-Business Summit

I’ve had the better part of a day to wonder what good can come of an eleventh-hour lame-duck summit between Roh Moo Hyun and Kim Jong Il, and one possibility finally did occur to me.  When Roh returns to Seoul, a DNA swab of his chin will guarantee us  a  positive  ID of  Kim Jong Il’s disfigured  corpse  once it is recovered from  some shallow grave or lamppost.  Don’t laugh.  He supposedly keeps a few doubles, and how long were...

Buddhist NGO Warns of Return of Famine in North Korea

The South Korean NGO Good Friends, which has been well connected inside North Korea since the Great Famine, says that North Koreans are again starving to death in significant numbers, although the numbers do not (yet?) approach the death tolls of the 1990’s. Good Friends, an organization helping North Korea opened a media information session on the 2nd about the North Korean food shortage and said that immediate food support was necessary as “around 10 people per city and county...

Pew: Anti-Americanism Declined in South Korea (But Read the Fine Print)

According to this year’s Pew Global attitudes report, anti-Americanism has declined significantly in South Korea, from 46% favorable in 2003 to 58% favorable last year. Pew says that the “U.S. image has improved dramatically” there, and while this result suggests a significant and positive change, Pew’s enthusiasm is overstated, because Pew is comparing two extremes that may overstate the actual situation. Pew’s first point of comparison is 2003, when anti-Americanism was at its fevered peak, when no South Korean politician...